| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 11d | Yes | 12,000 | 71¢ → 72¢ | $8,646 | +$129 +1.5% |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Ends in 15d | No | 8,000 | 63¢ → 63¢ | $5,000 | −$50 −1.0% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Ends in 76d | No | 5,000 | 54¢ → 94¢ | $4,675 | +$1,975 +73% |
| Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 8d | No | 4,000 | 66¢ → 72¢ | $2,860 | +$220 +8.3% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 12,000 | 17¢ → 24¢ | $2,820 | +$720 +34% |
| Will Olivia Chow win the 2026 Toronto mayoral election?Ends in 7d | Yes | 3,587 | 69¢ → 76¢ | $2,708 | +$225 +9.1% |
| Will Trump and Putin not meet?Ends in 73d | No | 3,000 | 39¢ → 87¢ | $2,610 | +$1,453 +126% |
| Will STRC hit $100 by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 10,000 | 33¢ → 24¢ | $2,430 | −$887 −27% |
| Will OpenAI not announce that it has resumed training by October 20, 2026?Ends in 1d | Yes | 2,343 | 74¢ → 94¢ | $2,203 | +$470 +27% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, D HouseEnds in 15d | Yes | 8,000 | 27¢ → 28¢ | $2,200 | +$20 +0.9% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 3,000 | 69¢ → 70¢ | $2,100 | +$37 +1.8% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by October 31, 2026?Ends in 12d | No | 2,000 | 29¢ → >99¢ | $1,995 | +$1,415 +244% |
| Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record?Ends in 133d | Yes | 9,000 | 57¢ → 19¢ | $1,665 | −$3,491 −68% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 4,000 | 42¢ → 40¢ | $1,580 | −$120 −7.1% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?Ends in 77d | No | 2,000 | 51¢ → 75¢ | $1,500 | +$480 +47% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 2,000 | 74¢ → 74¢ | $1,470 | −$10 −0.7% |
| Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 2,000 | 74¢ → 72¢ | $1,430 | −$50 −3.4% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by November 30, 2026?Ends in 42d | No | 3,000 | 39¢ → 48¢ | $1,425 | +$256 +22% |
| Will Hyperliquid reach $100 by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 2,000 | 46¢ → 62¢ | $1,230 | +$304 +33% |
| Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Ends in 40d | Yes | 2,000 | 64¢ → 60¢ | $1,190 | −$90 −7.0% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 24, 2026?Ends in 5d | No | 3,000 | 34¢ → 36¢ | $1,080 | +$63 +6.2% |
| Will the Democrats win the Georgia governor race in 2026?Ends in 15d | Yes | 2,000 | 47¢ → 52¢ | $1,030 | +$90 +9.6% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 6,000 | 17¢ → 17¢ | $1,023 | −$1 −0.1% |
| Will "Street Fighter" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 30m?Ends ended | No | 1,000 | 64¢ → 99¢ | $994 | +$351 +55% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 3,822 | 37¢ → 26¢ | $975 | −$432 −31% |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31?Ends in 12d | No | 1,000 | 88¢ → 96¢ | $962 | +$82 +9.3% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 42d | Yes | 2,000 | 48¢ → 48¢ | $950 | −$10 −1.0% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be between 150m and 160m by October 31?Ends in 11d | Yes | 1,000 | 71¢ → 94¢ | $945 | +$235 +33% |
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 1,000 | 14¢ → 93¢ | $933 | +$793 +566% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by October 31, 2026?Ends in 12d | No | 1,000 | 81¢ → 85¢ | $845 | +$35 +4.3% |
| Variational FDV above $1B one day after launch?Ends in 438d | No | 2,000 | 41¢ → 42¢ | $840 | +$20 +2.4% |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 5,000 | 25¢ → 17¢ | $825 | −$425 −34% |
| Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Ends in 15d | Yes | 4,000 | 23¢ → 21¢ | $820 | −$100 −11% |
| Will Stripe acquire any part of Paypal in 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 859 | 33¢ → 95¢ | $812 | +$529 +186% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 3,000 | 40¢ → 25¢ | $735 | −$460 −38% |
| Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 800 | 73¢ → 89¢ | $708 | +$124 +21% |
| Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 12,000 | 13¢ → 6¢ | $672 | −$945 −58% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 11d | No | 4,000 | 22¢ → 17¢ | $660 | −$220 −25% |
| Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?Ends in 73d | No | 2,000 | 38¢ → 33¢ | $655 | −$97 −13% |
| No one announced as next James Bond?Ends in 73d | No | 1,000 | 80¢ → 64¢ | $644 | −$158 −20% |
| Susie Wiles out as White House Chief of Staff by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 1,000 | 75¢ → 64¢ | $635 | −$113 −15% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 1,000 | 61¢ → 60¢ | $595 | −$15 −2.5% |
| Will STRC hit $100 by October 31?Ends in 12d | No | 896 | 21¢ → 66¢ | $592 | +$401 +211% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?Ends in 77d | Yes | 4,000 | 17¢ → 14¢ | $580 | −$100 −15% |
| Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 1,000 | 62¢ → 56¢ | $565 | −$53 −8.5% |
| Will Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 600 | 53¢ → 92¢ | $549 | +$231 +73% |
| Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026?Ends in 57d | No | 2,000 | 38¢ → 27¢ | $530 | −$230 −30% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1490?Ends in 73d | No | 688 | 49¢ → 77¢ | $527 | +$188 +56% |
| Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 3,000 | 31¢ → 17¢ | $495 | −$435 −47% |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Ends ended | No | 1,000 | 42¢ → 47¢ | $470 | +$53 +13% |
| Next White House Press Secretary announced by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 2,000 | 19¢ → 23¢ | $450 | +$70 +18% |
| Will AI solve 0 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 1,800 | 30¢ → 24¢ | $432 | −$106 −20% |
| Will another contestant win The Bachelorette Season 22?Ends in 41d | Yes | 471 | 11¢ → 91¢ | $429 | +$377 +727% |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | No | 766 | 31¢ → 54¢ | $414 | +$176 +74% |
| Christine Lagarde out as ECB president in 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 1,000 | 23¢ → 39¢ | $385 | +$154 +67% |
| Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by October 22, 2026?Ends in 3d | No | 1,000 | 34¢ → 38¢ | $380 | +$38 +11% |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the second round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 4–8%?Ends in 6d | Yes | 14,981 | 1¢ → 2¢ | $315 | +$195 +163% |
| Will the Democrats win the Florida governor race in 2026?Ends in 15d | Yes | 1,520 | 20¢ → 21¢ | $312 | +$8 +2.5% |
| James Comey charges dropped by December 31?Ends in 73d | No | 400 | 41¢ → 77¢ | $308 | +$144 +88% |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?Ends in 77d | No | 2,000 | 15¢ → 15¢ | $300 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Alexia Putellas win the 2026 Women's Ballon d'Or?Ends in 7d | No | 4,000 | 6¢ → 7¢ | $290 | +$46 +19% |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on October 31, 2026?Ends in 12d | No | 2,403 | 4¢ → 12¢ | $285 | +$178 +167% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 60% or higher?Ends in 73d | Yes | 800 | 40¢ → 36¢ | $284 | −$35 −11% |
| Will Anna Kelly be the next White House Press Secretary?Ends in 438d | Yes | 2,000 | 14¢ → 14¢ | $270 | −$10 −3.6% |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Ends in 73d | Yes | 1,000 | 37¢ → 26¢ | $265 | −$107 −29% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 4,000 | 25¢ → 7¢ | $260 | −$740 −74% |
| Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch?Ends in 438d | No | 1,000 | 23¢ → 22¢ | $220 | −$10 −4.3% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 1,266 | 26¢ → 17¢ | $209 | −$120 −37% |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 2,000 | 52¢ → 10¢ | $190 | −$850 −82% |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?Ends in 73d | Yes | 6,000 | 6¢ → 3¢ | $171 | −$199 −54% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 2,000 | 30¢ → 9¢ | $170 | −$421 −71% |
| US x Yemen ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 11d | No | 3,000 | 12¢ → 6¢ | $165 | −$205 −55% |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?Ends in 73d | Yes | 2,000 | 33¢ → 8¢ | $160 | −$500 −76% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026?Ends in 80d | Yes | 153 | 79¢ → 96¢ | $147 | +$25 +21% |
| Will any player have 1,750+ receiving yards in the 2026-27 NFL regular season?Ends in 99d | No | 414 | 28¢ → 32¢ | $130 | +$14 +13% |
| Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 500 | 25¢ → 25¢ | $127 | +$3 +2.6% |
| Will American Airlines (AAL) beat quarterly earnings?Ends in 2d | No | 200 | 24¢ → 63¢ | $126 | +$78 +163% |
| Will Max Martin attend Taylor Swift's wedding?Ends in 72d | Yes | 800 | 63¢ → 16¢ | $124 | −$380 −75% |
| Will Heated Rivalry rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched TV Shows of 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 221 | 52¢ → 54¢ | $118 | +$3 +2.9% |
| Nigel Farage out as Reform UK leader by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 1,400 | 35¢ → 8¢ | $112 | −$372 −77% |
| Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 1,101 | 11¢ → 10¢ | $105 | −$11 −9.2% |
| Will Chen Ting-fei win the next Tainan Mayor election?Ends in 40d | No | 1,000 | 16¢ → 11¢ | $105 | −$55 −34% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?Ends ended | Yes | 500 | 27¢ → 21¢ | $105 | −$30 −22% |
| Clavicular sentenced to prison by December 31, 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 1,748 | 13¢ → 6¢ | $105 | −$130 −55% |
| Will a ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year) be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 800 | 29¢ → 13¢ | $100 | −$132 −57% |
| Will Esthela Damián Peralta win the 2027 Guerrero Governor Election?Ends in 230d | Yes | 2,000 | 21¢ → 5¢ | $100 | −$320 −76% |
| Will the highest score achieved by an Anthropic Claude model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 65% or higher?Ends in 73d | Yes | 600 | 22¢ → 14¢ | $81 | −$51 −39% |
| Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?Ends ended | Yes | 1,000 | 5¢ → 8¢ | $80 | +$30 +60% |
| Law banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 1,000 | 12¢ → 8¢ | $80 | −$40 −33% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026?Ends in 12d | Yes | 1,000 | 22¢ → 8¢ | $75 | −$145 −66% |
| Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?Ends in 73d | Yes | 1,720 | 54¢ → 4¢ | $73 | −$847 −92% |
| Will the median home value in NYC be between $484,000 and $497,000 on December 31?Ends in 83d | No | 70 | 86¢ → 89¢ | $62 | +$2 +3.5% |
| Will the Tesla Roadster's 0-60 time be less than 1 second?Ends ended | No | 100,000 | <1¢ → <1¢ | $50 | −$50 −50% |
| Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?Ends in 73d | Yes | 1,000 | 14¢ → 5¢ | $45 | −$95 −68% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 438d | No | 75 | 33¢ → 39¢ | $29 | +$4 +17% |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31?Ends in 12d | Yes | 1,000 | 17¢ → 2¢ | $24 | −$146 −86% |
| OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027?Ends in 73d | Yes | 932 | 39¢ → 2¢ | $22 | −$344 −94% |
| Will Apple release a new product line before 2027?Ends in 73d | No | 1,000 | 25¢ → 2¢ | $20 | −$229 −92% |
| Will a new pneumonic plague case be confirmed in Russia by October 31?Ends in 12d | Yes | 1,000 | 9¢ → 2¢ | $18 | −$72 −80% |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1510?Ends ended | Yes | 84 | 17¢ → 20¢ | $16 | +$2 +14% |
