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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chloé Zhao | 100% | +19 pts | +20 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Guillermo del Toro | 0% | −39 pts | −44 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Josh Safdie | 100% | +30 pts | +39 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Ryan Coogler | 100% | +3 pts | +5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Joachim Trier | 100% | +21 pts | +33 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Jafar Panahi | 0% | −36 pts | −48 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| James Cameron | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Yorgos Lanthimos | 0% | −5 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Paul Thomas Anderson | 100% | 0 pts | +1 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Edward Berger | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Park Chan-wook | 0% | −3 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Mona Fastvold | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kleber Mendonça Filho | 0% | −17 pts | −19 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Benny Safdie | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Zach Cregger | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Clint Bentley | 0% | −1 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Jon M. Chu | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kathryn Bigelow | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Noah Baumbach | 0% | −1 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Anthony Maras | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 275d | ForFamily | Anthony Maras | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,643 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 275d | ForFamily | Zach Cregger | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,070 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 275d | Momolly | Chloé Zhao | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,516 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 275d |  TAMALIE | Chloé Zhao | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,378 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 275d |  wish- | Edward Berger | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,687 | +$8 +0.2% | 20 |
| 275d | wish- | James Cameron | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,473 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 275d | wish- | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,254 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 275d |  mioki | Zach Cregger | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,010 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 275d | mioki | Chloé Zhao | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,674 | +$88 +2.4% | 20 |
| 275d | VVKhqdMdKjEpLsDRwu | Kleber Mendonça Filho | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $1,682 | −$332 −20% | — |
| 275d | RIU8 | Paul Thomas Anderson | SellYes>99¢ | $1,317 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 275d | 0xf6d3…ae43 | Chloé Zhao | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,232 | +$347 +28% | 20 |
| 275d | mwenya2 fills | Chloé Zhao | BuyYes69¢ → 100¢ | $2,664 | +$1,207 +45% | 20 |
| 275d |  0xdc3E831cad | Yorgos Lanthimos | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,517 | +$64 +4.2% | 20 |
| 275d | cocococococo | Chloé Zhao | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,191 | +$376 +32% | 28 |
| 276d | sylv13 | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,503 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 280d | aviato | Ryan Coogler | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,604 | +$69 +4.3% | 20 |
| 282d |  ImJustKen | Paul Thomas Anderson | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,494 | −$10 −0.7% | — |
| 283d | VVKhqdMdKjEpLsDRwu | Kleber Mendonça Filho | BuyNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,687 | +$346 +21% | 20 |
| 285d | valartsoso | Chloé Zhao | BuyYes87¢ → 100¢ | $3,443 | +$496 +14% | 20 |
| 285d | f2hf84hg52h5 | Ryan Coogler | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,565 | +$67 +4.3% | 20 |
| 288d | jxcbhdry3hcv | James Cameron | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,633 | +$19 +0.7% | 20 |
| 288d | jgfhdfger63x | James Cameron | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,577 | +$18 +0.7% | 20 |
| 288d | bxcgdf6ergdxcv | James Cameron | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,633 | +$19 +0.7% | 20 |
| 288d | zasddhd6345bh | James Cameron | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,577 | +$18 +0.7% | 20 |
| 288d | gremlin | Josh Safdie | BuyYes51¢ → 100¢ | $1,115 | +$1,072 +96% | 20 |
| 289d | gremlin | Chloé Zhao | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,575 | +$859 +54% | 20 |
| 289d | fdhdhdfhfd346 | Edward Berger | BuyNo100¢ | $2,580 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 289d | dfhcvvmvbujty8rt | Edward Berger | BuyNo100¢ | $2,623 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 289d | hfdhfdh67hjdfh | Edward Berger | BuyNo100¢ | $2,623 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 289d | kjghsdlg8odgs5 | Edward Berger | BuyNo100¢ | $2,580 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 291d | superblueinc | Ryan Coogler | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$56 +5.6% | 20 |
| 292d | Mewin | Guillermo del Toro | BuyYes55¢ → 0¢ | $1,121 | −$1,121 −100% | 20 |
| 292d | Abdoulay | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,265 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 293d | grub-751 | Josh Safdie | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | +$1,092 +93% | 20 |
| 311d | CollinRitter2742 | Yorgos Lanthimos | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,245 | +$154 +12% | 20 |
| 322d | ImJustKen | Paul Thomas Anderson | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,363 | +$43 +3.1% | 20 |
The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed director is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Director. If a director is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Director when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No". If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Chloé Zhao means the market gives it about 100%.