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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70-75% | 100% | 0 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| < 70% | 0% | — | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 75-80% | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 80-85% | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| > 85% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 163d |  The-Joker | 80-85% | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,136 | +$10 +0.9% | 10 |
| 166d | Kind-Catcher | 80-85% | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,064 | −$58 −5.4% | — |
| 166d | Well-Off-Declaration | 80-85% | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,226 | −$45 −3.7% | — |
| 169d |  x26 | 80-85% | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$23 +2.2% | 10 |
| 172d |  mrworldwide2 fills | 70-75% | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,854 | +$283 +9.9% | 10 |
| 192d | TheMasterDuster | 70-75% | BuyNo89¢ → 0¢ | $4,000 | −$4,000 −100% | 10 |
| 192d | TheMasterDuster | 75-80% | BuyYes79¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 10 |
| 192d | Polished-Icebreaker | 70-75% | BuyNo83¢ → 0¢ | $2,416 | −$2,416 −100% | 12 |
Lavincey121 sharesFirst-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Peru on April 12, 2026, with a potential second round on June 7, 2026, if no candidate receives more than 50% of the valid votes outright. This market will resolve according to the turnout percentage (% Total Asistentes) in the first round presidential elections, calculated by dividing attendees (Asistentes) by eligible voters (Electores hábiles). This market will resolve solely based on turnout for the first-round Presidential (Presidencial) election; turnout for Congress members (Congresistas), the Senate (Senado), or the Andean Parliament (Parlamento Andino) will not be considered. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results are not known definitively by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve solely on the official results as reported by the Peruvian government, specifically the National Office of Electoral Processes (Oficina Nacional de Procesos Electorales, ONPE) (https://www.onpe.gob.pe/elecciones/) and the National Jury of Elections (Jurado Nacional de Elecciones, JNE) (https://portal.jne.gob.pe/portal/)
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 70-75% means the market gives it about 100%.