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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seguro 30-40% | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Seguro 50%+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Seguro 40-50% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Seguro 20-30% | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Seguro 10-20% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Seguro 0-10% | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Ventura Victory | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240d |  DiamondHands11 | Seguro 30-40% | BuyYes>99¢ | $21,262 | +$22 +0.1% | 10 |
| 240d |  1485727384842 fills | Seguro 30-40% | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,853 | +$37 +0.2% | 10 |
| 241d | kcnyekchno | Seguro 40-50% | SellNo>99¢ | $31,566 | −$32 −0.1% | — |
| 243d | Forthright-Armpit | Seguro 40-50% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,052 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 243d | nedsta | Seguro 0-10% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,322 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 244d |  sciuboi | Seguro 50%+ | SellNo>99¢ | $2,605 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 246d | Threadbare-Astronomy | Seguro 30-40% | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,375 | +$7 +0.3% | 10 |
| 246d | 148572738484 | Seguro 0-10% | SellNo>99¢ | $3,627 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 246d | 148572738484 | Seguro 40-50% | SellNo>99¢ | $5,471 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 246d | 148572738484 | Seguro 50%+ | SellNo>99¢ | $1,498 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 247d |  cynical-reason | Seguro 20-30% | SellNo>99¢ | $2,619 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 248d | StudentMoney2 fills | Seguro 30-40% | SellYes>99¢ | $18,419 | −$55 −0.3% | — |
| 248d |  tunatyler | Seguro 30-40% | SellYes>99¢ | $5,569 | −$11 −0.2% | — |
| 249d | StudentMoney3 fills | Seguro 10-20% | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,015 | −$84 −2.1% | — |
| 250d | BryanPunishMK22 | Seguro 20-30% | SellNo>99¢ | $6,513 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 252d |  xingaze | Seguro 30-40% | SellYes>99¢ | $1,095 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 253d |  d1k21 | Seguro 30-40% | SellYes>99¢ | $1,381 | −$6 −0.4% | — |
| 253d |  gopfan2 | Seguro 30-40% | SellYes>99¢ | $9,870 | −$30 −0.3% | — |
| 254d |  Valen9 | Seguro 0-10% | SellNo>99¢ | $8,583 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 254d | 10KWarrior | Seguro 30-40% | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,396 | +$4 +0.3% | 10 |
| 254d | godgivennow2 fills | Seguro 30-40% | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,812 | +$8 +0.3% | 10 |
| 254d | takemehomewithworldcup | Seguro 30-40% | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,193 | +$7 +0.3% | 10 |
| 254d | 64MGX75VLQ | Seguro 30-40% | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 10 |
| 254d |  Epstein | Seguro 30-40% | SellYes>99¢ | $4,143 | −$17 −0.4% | — |
| 255d |  archaic | Seguro 0-10% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,182 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 255d | nonkenny90 | Seguro 10-20% | SellNo>99¢ | $10,875 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | Passionate-Left | Seguro 0-10% | SellNo>99¢ | $3,182 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 256d |  DonaldinhoTrumpito | Seguro 20-30% | SellNo>99¢ | $8,888 | −$9 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | User22222 | Seguro 30-40% | SellYes>99¢ | $2,351 | −$8 −0.3% | — |
| 256d | cap12 | Seguro 30-40% | SellYes>99¢ | $1,049 | −$4 −0.4% | — |
| 256d | jocpolitic | Seguro 10-20% | SellNo>99¢ | $4,994 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 256d | gdude | Seguro 10-20% | SellNo>99¢ | $11,879 | −$12 −0.1% | — |
| 257d | hAWK12 | Seguro 20-30% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,367 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 257d | 0x76f2…3fb14 fills | Seguro 30-40% | SellYes>99¢ | $4,913 | −$19 −0.4% | — |
| 257d | 0x76f2…3fb14 fills | Seguro 30-40% | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,927 | +$5 +0.1% | 10 |
| 257d | StudentMoney | Seguro 30-40% | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,562 | +$19 +0.2% | 10 |
| 257d | aff3 | Seguro 0-10% | SellNo>99¢ | $10,613 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 257d |  GoriIIa | Seguro 10-20% | SellNo>99¢ | $3,232 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 257d |  AlexLiu | Seguro 0-10% | SellNo>99¢ | $2,404 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 257d |  chefepanda | Seguro 30-40% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,088 | −$28 −0.9% | — |
| 257d | influenz.eth | Seguro 40-50% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,923 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 257d | chefepanda | Seguro 20-30% | SellNo>99¢ | $1,626 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 257d | chefepanda | Seguro 40-50% | SellNo>99¢ | $11,114 | −$11 −0.1% | — |
| 257d | Passionate-Left | Seguro 10-20% | SellNo>99¢ | $4,440 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 257d | DonaldinhoTrumpito2 fills | Seguro 40-50% | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,736 | +$37 +0.3% | 10 |
| 257d | Predictandbreathe | Seguro 30-40% | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,464 | −$36 −0.8% | — |
| 257d | OntheHedge | Seguro 40-50% | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,427 | +$10 +0.4% | 10 |
| 257d | nonkenny90 | Seguro 0-10% | SellNo>99¢ | $4,440 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 257d | Serene-Decision | Seguro 30-40% | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,383 | +$47 +0.5% | 10 |
| 257d |  hotpotato881 | Seguro 40-50% | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,660 | −$28 −0.6% | — |
| 257d | DonaldinhoTrumpito2 fills | Seguro 30-40% | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,492 | +$87 +1.9% | 10 |
| 257d |  Ryxon21 | Seguro 30-40% | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,967 | −$38 −1.9% | — |
| 257d | Unrealistic-Corral | Seguro 40-50% | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,522 | −$56 −1.2% | — |
| 257d | nicdan | Seguro 30-40% | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$41 +2.0% | 10 |
| 257d | Yalokin | Seguro 30-40% | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $8,085 | −$409 −5.1% | — |
| 257d | DonaldinhoTrumpito | Seguro 20-30% | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $9,840 | +$160 +1.6% | 10 |
| 257d | operationcastle2 fills | Seguro 40-50% | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $6,790 | +$287 +4.2% | 10 |
| 257d | hotpotato881 | Seguro 30-40% | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | +$52 +4.9% | 10 |
| 257d |  chungguskhan | Seguro 40-50% | BuyYes6¢ → 0¢ | $1,801 | −$1,801 −100% | 14 |
| 257d | hAWK12 | Seguro 20-30% | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,301 | +$27 +2.0% | 10 |
MarvieI333 sharesSecond-round presidential elections are scheduled to be held in Portugal on February 8, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese Presidential Election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the results of the election aren’t known by June 30, 2026 ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Portuguese government, specifically the National Election Commission (Comissão Nacional de Eleições, CNE) (https://www.cne.pt/).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Seguro 30-40% means the market gives it about 100%.