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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $800M | 34% | +25 pts | +30 pts | 4¢ · 65¢ (61¢) | — | in 435d |
| $100M | 13% | +2 pts | +4 pts | 9¢ · 18¢ (9¢) | — | in 435d |
| $300M | 11% | −2 pts | +1 pts | 8¢ · 14¢ (6¢) | — | in 435d |
| $200M | 11% | — | +1 pts | 5¢ · 17¢ (12¢) | — | in 435d |
| $50M | 10% | — | +1 pts | 8¢ · 12¢ (4¢) | — | in 435d |
| $400M | 8% | −4 pts | −2 pts | 3¢ · 14¢ (11¢) | — | in 435d |
| $500M | 5% | 0 pts | −3 pts | 2¢ · 8¢ (6¢) | — | in 435d |
| $1B | 3% | — | −1 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | — | in 435d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88d | 0x8931…a90c | $100M | BuyNo88¢ → 87¢ | $1,955 | −$24 −1.2% | 2 |
| 88d | 0x8931…a90c | $50M | BuyNo89¢ → 90¢ | $1,732 | +$29 +1.7% | 2 |
| 89d | BetterHold | $50M | SellNo88¢ → 90¢ | $1,088 | −$28 −2.6% | — |
| 146d | randomlypunting | $50M | SellNo79¢ → 90¢ | $1,581 | −$219 −14% | — |
| 157d | BetterHold | $100M | BuyNo91¢ → 87¢ | $1,194 | −$54 −4.6% | 2 |
| 157d | shprota | $100M | BuyNo91¢ → 87¢ | $1,630 | −$64 −4.0% | 2 |
| 221d | shprota | $50M | BuyNo93¢ → 90¢ | $1,453 | −$44 −3.1% | 2 |
| 225d | randomlypunting2 fills | $50M | BuyNo90¢ | $3,016 | +$6 +0.2% | 2 |
| 225d | randomlypunting | $100M | BuyNo95¢ → 87¢ | $1,522 | −$121 −8.0% | 2 |
| 226d |  MajoriT | $50M | BuyNo91¢ → 90¢ | $1,065 | −$12 −1.1% | 2 |
| 232d |  1sk | $200M | SellNo95¢ → 89¢ | $1,350 | +$85 +6.3% | — |
| 232d | 1sk | $300M | SellNo97¢ → 89¢ | $1,363 | +$112 +8.2% | — |
| 233d | MarioCrypto1 | $50M | BuyNo90¢ | $1,119 | $0 0.0% | 2 |
| 233d | 1sk | $200M | BuyNo91¢ → 89¢ | $1,506 | −$28 −1.9% | 2 |
| 233d | 1sk | $300M | BuyNo91¢ → 89¢ | $1,283 | −$32 −2.5% | 2 |
| 233d |  zhupercyclist | $50M | BuyNo72¢ → 90¢ | $3,600 | +$900 +25% | 2 |
2B9S168 shares
LornaPredicts35 shares
airdorpslooog23 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Probable's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Probable (https://x.com/0xProbable) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 34¢ for $800M means the market gives it about 34%.