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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 44% | 0 pts | −3 pts | 44¢ · 44¢ (<1¢) | $3.59K | in 746d |
| Marco Rubio | 15% | — | +2 pts | 15¢ · 15¢ (<1¢) | $4.76K | in 746d |
| Ron DeSantis | 3% | 0 pts | +1 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $36.7K | in 746d |
| Tucker Carlson | 3% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 3¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $5.27K | in 746d |
| Ted Cruz | 2% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 3¢ (<1¢) | $1.12K | in 746d |
| Donald Trump | 2% | — | — | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $2.26K | in 746d |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 2% | — | 0 pts | 2¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $271 | in 746d |
| Ivanka Trump | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 2¢ (<1¢) | $1.5K | in 746d |
| Thomas Massie | 1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $21K | in 746d |
| Brian Kemp | 1% | — | 0 pts | 1¢ · 1¢ (<1¢) | $1.51K | in 746d |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $162 | in 746d |
| Josh Hawley | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $2.55K | in 746d |
| Rand Paul | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $671 | in 746d |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $80.6 | in 746d |
| Pete Hegseth | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $39 | in 746d |
| Tom Cotton | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | — | in 746d |
| Glenn Youngkin | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $103K | in 746d |
| Greg Abbott | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $68.1 | in 746d |
| Katie Britt | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $41.3 | in 746d |
| Candace Owens | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $1.5 | in 746d |
| Eric Trump | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $251 | in 746d |
| Tulsi Gabbard | <1% | 0 pts | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $10.2K | in 746d |
| Nikki Haley | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $250 | in 746d |
| Vivek Ramaswamy | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $62.1 | in 746d |
| Byron Donalds | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $1.33K | in 746d |
| Elise Stefanik | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $246 | in 746d |
| Elon Musk | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $332 | in 746d |
| Kristi Noem | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $1.25K | in 746d |
| Mike Pence | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $997 | in 746d |
| Steve Bannon | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $558 | in 746d |
| Joe Kent | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $30.5 | in 746d |
| Doug Burgum | <1% | — | 0 pts | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $121K | in 746d |
| John N. Kennedy | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $66.9 | in 746d |
| John McEntee | <1% | — | — | <1¢ · <1¢ (<1¢) | $111 | in 744d |
| Sarah Huckabee Sanders | <1% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Matt Gaetz | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| John Thune | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $30K | in 746d |
| Tom Brady | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | $390 | in 746d |
| Erika Kirk | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Kim Kardashian | <1% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | $1.55K | in 746d |
| Tim Scott | <1% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Mike Johnson | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Rick Scott | <1% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | in 746d |
| Outcome | Polymarket | Kalshi | Gap | Lock $1 for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 44% | 40% | 4 pts | $0.986 |
| Marco Rubio | 15% | 19% | 4 pts | $0.984 |
| Ron DeSantis | 3% | 5% | 2 pts | $0.997 |
| Tucker Carlson | 3% | 3% | 0 pts | $1.003 |
| Ted Cruz | 2% | 2% | 0 pts | $1.006 |
| Donald Trump | 2% | 2% | 0 pts | $1.001 |
| Donald Trump Jr. | 2% | 3% | 1 pts | $1.000 |
| Ivanka Trump | 1% | 1% | 0 pts | $1.006 |
| Thomas Massie | 1% | 1% | 0 pts | $1.005 |
| Brian Kemp | 1% | 2% | 1 pts | $0.997 |
| Glenn Youngkin | <1% | 1% | 1 pts | $0.994 |
| Candace Owens | <1% | 1% | 1 pts | $1.009 |
| Doug Burgum | <1% | 1% | 1 pts | $1.010 |
| John N. Kennedy | <1% | 1% | 1 pts | $1.010 |
| Tim Scott | <1% | 1% | 1 pts | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2h | HERObut | Ron DeSantis | SellNo97¢ | $1,113 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 11h | Ferwhere | Ron DeSantis | BuyYes3¢ | $1,200 | −$66 −5.5% | 14 |
| 1d | 6terdgtr75eryftj | Donald Trump Jr. | SellNo98¢ | $2,938 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 1d | Grummer | Donald Trump | BuyNo98¢ | $1,855 | −$1 −0.1% | 11 |
| 1d | dgre657g | Donald Trump | BuyNo98¢ | $1,700 | −$1 −0.1% | 11 |
| 1d | svdv1 | Marco Rubio | BuyYes15¢ | $1,200 | −$11 −0.9% | 31 |
| 1d |  Kuukskes2 fills | J.D. Vance | SellYes44¢ | $4,154 | −$48 −1.1% | — |
| 1d | Kuukskes2 fills | J.D. Vance | BuyYes44¢ | $4,396 | +$40 +0.9% | 32 |
| 1d | Kuukskes2 fills | Pete Hegseth | SellNo>99¢ | $3,241 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 2d | Kuukskes2 fills | Pete Hegseth | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,596 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 2d | Ventro | Ted Cruz | SellNo98¢ | $1,198 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 3d | sinatra-868 | Marco Rubio | BuyYes15¢ | $1,000 | +$27 +2.7% | 27 |
| 3d | tugator | Tucker Carlson | BuyNo97¢ | $1,705 | $0 0.0% | 12 |
| 3d | tugator2 fills | Vivek Ramaswamy | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,078 | +$3 +0.1% | 10 |
| 3d | tugator | Nikki Haley | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,995 | −$2 −0.1% | 10 |
| 3d | tugator | Elon Musk | BuyNo>99¢ | $19,980 | −$10 −0.1% | 10 |
| 3d | tugator | Joe Kent | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | −$5 −0.1% | 10 |
| 3d | tugator2 fills | John N. Kennedy | BuyNo>99¢ | $21,229 | −$11 −0.1% | 10 |
| 3d | tugator3 fills | John McEntee | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,736 | −$7 −0.1% | 10 |
| 3d | Huxleydf | Vivek Ramaswamy | SellNo>99¢ | $1,029 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 3d |  LeopoldArschenbrenner | J.D. Vance | SellNo56¢ | $1,873 | +$13 +0.7% | — |
| 3d |  0xwordjnn2 fills | J.D. Vance | SellYes44¢ | $5,713 | −$52 −0.9% | — |
| 4d | Ventro | Ted Cruz | BuyNo98¢ | $1,200 | −$2 −0.2% | 12 |
| 4d | ghgu789thhfjhg | Donald Trump Jr. | SellNo98¢ | $2,345 | +$2 +0.1% | — |
| 4d | ghgu789thhfjhg | Donald Trump Jr. | BuyNo99¢ → 98¢ | $2,350 | −$7 −0.3% | 11 |
| 4d | tugator | Marjorie Taylor Greene | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,724 | −$4 −0.1% | 10 |
| 4d | tugator | Tom Cotton | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,985 | −$2 −0.1% | 10 |
| 4d | tugator | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,990 | −$7 −0.2% | 10 |
| 4d | tugator | Katie Britt | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,733 | −$4 −0.1% | 10 |
| 4d | tugator | Candace Owens | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,733 | −$4 −0.1% | 10 |
| 4d | tugator | Eric Trump | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,990 | −$10 −0.1% | 10 |
| 4d | tugator | Kim Kardashian | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,619 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 4d |  tetrose | Marco Rubio | BuyYes15¢ | $9,738 | +$207 +2.1% | 45 |
| 4d | lastminwin | Marco Rubio | BuyYes14¢ → 15¢ | $1,580 | +$110 +7.0% | 33 |
| 5d |  bigdihhh888 | J.D. Vance | BuyNo56¢ | $1,036 | −$3 −0.3% | 30 |
| 5d | Anon5566 | J.D. Vance | SellYes45¢ → 44¢ | $10,666 | +$112 +1.1% | — |
| 5d |  Hugewinner | Ron DeSantis | BuyYes3¢ | $4,092 | +$498 +12% | 30 |
| 5d | cashy | J.D. Vance | BuyNo53¢ → 56¢ | $2,932 | +$132 +4.5% | 30 |
| 5d | try655rdghgjgh | Tucker Carlson | SellNo97¢ | $2,054 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 6d | DonDon7563 | Brian Kemp | SellNo100¢ → 99¢ | $2,438 | +$1 +0.1% | — |
| 6d | EagleUSA | Brian Kemp | SellNo99¢ | $4,871 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 6d | fendrakon | Ron DeSantis | SellNo97¢ | $3,649 | +$23 +0.6% | — |
| 6d | fendrakon | Ron DeSantis | BuyNo98¢ → 97¢ | $3,660 | −$34 −0.9% | 11 |
| 6d | hfv | J.D. Vance | BuyNo53¢ → 56¢ | $1,947 | +$91 +4.6% | 30 |
| 6d | suntori4 fills | J.D. Vance | SellYes49¢ → 44¢ | $6,540 | +$700 +11% | — |
| 6d | cameraMNA | Ivanka Trump | SellNo99¢ | $3,537 | +$10 +0.3% | — |
| 6d | gubernator | Donald Trump Jr. | SellNo98¢ | $4,793 | +$3 +0.1% | — |
| 6d | gubernator | Donald Trump Jr. | BuyNo98¢ | $4,800 | −$11 −0.2% | 11 |
| 7d | Old-Birthday | Vivek Ramaswamy | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$1 +0.1% | 10 |
| 7d | 0x8605…aa832 fills | J.D. Vance | BuyNo50¢ → 56¢ | $3,500 | +$429 +12% | 30 |
| 7d | dsgfgre6546yhg | Donald Trump Jr. | SellNo98¢ | $1,109 | +$1 +0.1% | — |
| 7d | r754yytr5 | Ron DeSantis | SellNo98¢ → 97¢ | $2,223 | +$20 +0.9% | — |
| 7d | r754yytr5 | Ron DeSantis | BuyNo98¢ → 97¢ | $2,225 | −$23 −1.0% | 10 |
| 8d |  bifurcatio | J.D. Vance | BuyNo52¢ → 56¢ | $25,371 | +$2,068 +8.2% | 30 |
| 8d | stas | Vivek Ramaswamy | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,399 | +$2 +0.1% | 10 |
| 8d | Zoomertrash | Donald Trump | SellNo98¢ | $1,299 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 8d | HERObut | Ron DeSantis | BuyNo98¢ → 97¢ | $1,125 | −$10 −0.9% | 10 |
| 9d | Gugol876ygj7 | Ted Cruz | SellNo98¢ | $3,909 | +$2 +0.1% | — |
| 9d | Derekzok | Ted Cruz | SellNo98¢ | $4,543 | +$2 +0.1% | — |
| 9d | Serren | Ted Cruz | SellNo98¢ | $3,446 | +$2 +0.1% | — |
Brokie331,698 shares
PantheraUncia114,005 shares
Cadabra110,694 sharesbifurcatio25,693 shares
Polybius10,000 shares
Barboncino10,000 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 44¢ for J.D. Vance means the market gives it about 44%.