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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 14 | 100% | +11 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 28 | 100% | +4 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | February 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,795 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 260d |  scout2 fills | February 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,471 | +$13 +0.1% | 4 |
| 260d | scout | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,413 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 260d |  Warren-Buffett | February 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 4 |
| 260d |  OraculumNobius2 fills | February 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,831 | +$22 +0.2% | 4 |
| 260d | OraculumNobius | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,793 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 260d |  Rr55 | February 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,993 | +$7 +0.3% | 4 |
| 260d |  NiceDuckBro | February 28 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,108 | +$9 +0.4% | 4 |
| 260d | NiceDuckBro2 fills | February 14 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,289 | +$153 +2.1% | 4 |
| 260d | sybaujustbet | February 14 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,948 | +$37 +1.9% | 4 |
| 261d |  AcctToBeRetired | February 14 | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,820 | −$250 −14% | — |
| 261d | AcctToBeRetired | February 14 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,878 | +$192 +10% | 4 |
| 261d |  gghtx | February 14 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$181 +10% | 4 |
jewpresident600 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any confirmed prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine takes place by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The number of prisoners involved does not matter. Any swap involving military or civilian detainees held by either government will qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for February 14 means the market gives it about 100%.