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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 28% | −1 pts | −3 pts | 28¢ · 29¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| October 31 | 3% | +1 pts | +2 pts | 1¢ · 4¢ (3¢) | — | in 8d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d | dilaoer2 fills | December 31 | SellYes33¢ → 28¢ | $7,029 | +$959 +14% | — |
| 10d | meiguih | December 31 | SellNo68¢ → 72¢ | $6,596 | −$340 −5.1% | — |
| 10d | rensheg | December 31 | BuyNo67¢ → 72¢ | $6,700 | +$450 +6.7% | 4 |
| 10d | dayuzs | December 31 | BuyNo67¢ → 72¢ | $7,772 | +$522 +6.7% | 4 |
| 10d | dilaoer | December 31 | BuyYes34¢ → 28¢ | $3,298 | −$534 −16% | 8 |
| 19d | thoodr2 fills | October 31 | BuyNo96¢ → 97¢ | $3,714 | +$56 +1.5% | 4 |
| 85d | tonyboy1083 fills | SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,092 | +$9 +0.2% | 4 |
| 107d | LacunaWin | SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$20 +1.0% | 4 |
| 372d | Gifted-Tomato | SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by July 31, 2026? | SellYes63¢ → 0¢ | $1,134 | +$1,134 +100% | — |
bernardbulletin1,760 shares
Optimus-669 shares
ammarb631 shares
cambridgeisaac150 shares
2B9S111 shares
lizzyb539 shares
BobbyBakedBeans355 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over sports event contracts by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A case qualifies if it addresses at least one of the following: (1) whether contracts based on sporting event outcomes constitute regulated derivatives under the Commodity Exchange Act; (2) whether federal regulation via the Commodity Futures Trading Commission preempts state-level gambling laws as applied to such contracts; or (3) whether sports event contracts offered by federally licensed markets may legally be offered, restricted, or prohibited by federal or state authorities. The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus census of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 28¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 28%.