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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 375k–400k | 100% | +83 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <300k | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 300k–325k | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 325k–350k | 0% | −18 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 350k–375k | 0% | −57 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 400k–450k | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| ≥450k | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 478d | BridgeLake | 375k–400k | SellYes>99¢ | $1,614 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 478d | BridgeLake | 400k–450k | SellNo>99¢ | $1,135 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 478d | QMG-CORE | 325k–350k | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,564 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 478d | LBZone | <300k | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,403 | +$22 +0.2% | 4 |
| 478d | LBZone | 300k–325k | BuyNo>99¢ | $25,494 | +$26 +0.1% | 4 |
| 478d | LBZone | ≥450k | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,077 | +$13 +0.1% | 4 |
| 478d | LBZone | 400k–450k | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,813 | +$10 +0.1% | 4 |
| 478d | QMG-CORE2 fills | <300k | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,988 | +$12 +0.3% | 4 |
| 478d | QMG-CORE | 300k–325k | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,316 | +$34 +1.0% | 4 |
| 478d | BridgeLake | 375k–400k | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,051 | +$78 +7.4% | 4 |
| 480d | Folletin | 400k–450k | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,132 | +$419 +37% | 4 |
This market will resolve according to Tesla's announced total deliveries for Q2, 2025. If Tesla’s does not publish deliveries for, Q2 2025 by August 5, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be https://ir.tesla.com/press.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 375k–400k means the market gives it about 100%.