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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| February 28 | 0% | +5 pts | +2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 14 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −11 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 30 | 0% | 0 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| April 15 | 0% | −2 pts | −4 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 189d | April 15 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,110 | +$9 +0.2% | 20 | |
| 205d | April 30 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $1,399 | +$191 +14% | 20 | |
| 235d | February 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,996 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 235d | cobaltwhisper23 | February 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,704 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 235d | February 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,091 | +$42 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 235d | February 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,016 | +$18 +0.9% | 20 | |
| 238d | AnonSequitur | February 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$18 +1.1% | 20 |
| 248d | February 14 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,651 | −$3 −0.1% | — | |
| 250d | February 28 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $2,244 | +$156 +7.0% | 20 | |
| 251d | February 14 | BuyNo100¢ | $2,641 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 | |
| 252d | LetMeBeYourValentine2 fills | February 14 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,093 | +$17 +0.6% | 20 |
| 252d | LetMeBeYourValentine | February 28 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,066 | +$86 +4.2% | 20 |
| 254d | February 14 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,258 | +$16 +1.2% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Ukrainian armed forces initiate a drone, missile, or air strike on Moscow municipality's soil by the listed date Moscow Standard Time (MSK). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Ukrainian armed forces that impact Moscow municipality's ground territory. A strike on any area within the terrestrial territory of the Moscow municipality counts. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they land on the Moscow municipality's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by the Ukrainian armed forces will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official government/military statements (Ukrainian or Russian), multilateral bodies (UN, etc.), or a consensus of credible reporting from major international media and national broadcasters/newspapers. If the date/time of a strike cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting within 48 hours of this market's end date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike was later confirmed to have taken place.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for February 28 means the market gives it about 0%.