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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 0% | −2 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 15 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| September 30 | 0% | −2 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| November 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 285d |  MettaWorldPeace002 fills | January 15 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,211 | +$71 +3.2% | 4 |
| 286d | Huludubu4 fills | January 15 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,203 | +$237 +4.6% | 4 |
| 294d | kjsdavv | January 15 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$195 +3.9% | 4 |
| 296d | hollyber4 fills | December 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $7,937 | +$193 +2.4% | 4 |
| 300d | Ceiling-Ling | December 31 | BuyYes13¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 5 |
| 309d | Giseda | December 31 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,241 | −$145 −12% | — |
| 313d |  xyz9999 | December 31 | SellNo85¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | −$189 −17% | — |
| 317d | MettaWorldPeace00 | December 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $5,096 | +$325 +6.4% | 4 |
| 327d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | November 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,057 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 328d | pechenka23112 fills | November 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,940 | +$34 +1.2% | 4 |
| 357d |  cynical-reason | December 31 | BuyYes46¢ → 0¢ | $2,176 | −$2,176 −100% | 5 |
| 375d | vladk2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo60¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$1,964 +65% | 4 |
| 382d | HardlandSus | December 31 | BuyYes39¢ → 0¢ | $1,118 | −$1,118 −100% | 4 |
| 388d |  basedcigany | September 30 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,013 | +$6 +0.2% | 4 |
| 388d | derhirni | September 30 | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,102 | −$31 −2.8% | — |
| 389d | torrest2 fills | September 30 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,032 | +$129 +1.4% | 4 |
| 390d | derhirni | September 30 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,097 | +$35 +3.2% | 5 |
| 393d |  adonpoli | September 30 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,846 | +$180 +6.3% | 4 |
| 396d |  Isjsksjs | September 30 | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,206 | −$119 −9.9% | — |
cynical-reason4,733 shares
tradenow102 shares
LuckyLLL2 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces strikes Moscow municipality, or any target within the municipality, between August 25 and September 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, if a missile or drone launched by the Ukrainian armed forces is intercepted before striking Moscow or any target in it, even if it enters Moscow's airspace and its wreckage lands in Moscow, it will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence. If there is ambiguity over whether a strike occurred, or whether the drone/missile was intercepted, this market will resolve based on whatever is most likely according to a consensus of credible reporting and video evidence.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 0%.