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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | −4 pts | −26 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 236d | 0xSuperRekt | US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? | SellYes>99¢ | $5,249 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 236d |  ZhangMuZhi..5 fills | US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? | BuyYes>99¢ | $45,812 | +$46 +0.1% | 4 |
| 237d | 0xSuperRekt2 fills | US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,740 | +$121 +4.4% | 4 |
| 237d | Nikg9 | US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? | SellYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,143 | −$707 −62% | — |
| 240d | Sick-WantNew account | US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? | BuyNo77¢ → 0¢ | $4,043 | −$4,043 −100% | 16 |
| 258d | yyyyyyy | US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? | BuyNo69¢ → 0¢ | $2,103 | −$2,103 −100% | 4 |
| 258d |  RememberAmalek | US downs another Iranian drone by February 28? | BuyNo63¢ → 0¢ | $2,136 | −$2,136 −100% | 4 |
RememberAmalek1,650 shares
ImJustKen251 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the US military downs any Iranian military drone by any means (including kinetic, jammer, etc.) by February 28, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any drone whose operation is broadly attributed to Iran by a consensus of credible reporting will be considered an “Iranian drone”, regardless of whether it can be definitively confirmed that the drone was operated by the Iranian government or military. Drones whose operation attributed to individuals or forces external to the Iranian military or government, however, including proxy forces, will not count, even if they are an Iran-designed or Iran-produced drone. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.