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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 490d |  d1k21 | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,465 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 490d | rwo2 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,040 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 490d | Abadtaste | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $23,049 | −$123 −0.5% | — |
| 490d | 0Xbafeite | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo>99¢ | $5,946 | −$14 −0.2% | — |
| 490d | Mr.Fujin3 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo>99¢ | $19,570 | −$20 −0.1% | — |
| 490d | AZwater6 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $13,737 | +$310 +2.3% | 20 |
| 490d | Vilgefortz | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,062 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 490d | ro0k | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,898 | +$11 +0.1% | 20 |
| 490d |  verysensitive | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,087 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 490d | hindu5 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $57,592 | +$274 +0.5% | 20 |
| 490d |  PredictionYogi | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,259 | +$15 +0.2% | 20 |
| 490d |  cy6erpunker2 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,134 | +$18 +0.2% | 20 |
| 490d | OneTonMan | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $20,693 | −$107 −0.5% | — |
| 490d |  archaic | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,876 | +$6 +0.3% | 20 |
| 490d | Dbrain | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo100¢ | $1,842 | −$9 −0.5% | — |
| 490d | superman1232 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,976 | +$24 +0.6% | 20 |
| 490d | notlauren | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,968 | −$32 −0.8% | — |
| 490d | upp2 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,439 | +$62 +1.0% | 20 |
| 490d | wlzzhc58 | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,084 | −$21 −1.0% | — |
| 490d | bva2 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,422 | −$20 −0.8% | — |
| 490d |  imtiredb0ss | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,332 | +$31 +0.7% | 20 |
| 490d |  scottilicious3 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $33,019 | +$616 +1.9% | 20 |
| 490d | verysensitive | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,300 | +$101 +1.2% | 20 |
| 490d | chuchulong7 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $23,965 | +$520 +2.2% | 20 |
| 490d |  Car2 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $14,050 | −$423 −3.0% | — |
| 490d | jaytee1582 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | −$84 −4.2% | — |
| 490d | IBT2 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,907 | +$127 +3.3% | 20 |
| 490d | SitsToPee | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$40 +2.0% | 20 |
| 490d | bva | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,248 | +$66 +2.0% | 20 |
| 490d | Predictoooooor | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $10,000 | +$204 +2.0% | 20 |
| 490d | satoooooo2 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $3,694 | −$99 −2.7% | — |
| 490d | CanadianGoose | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,683 | +$45 +2.7% | 20 |
| 490d | klnr11 | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,659 | +$60 +2.3% | 20 |
| 490d | affs2079110 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $44,130 | +$1,361 +3.1% | 21 |
| 490d |  scout | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,190 | +$29 +2.5% | 20 |
| 490d | notlauren2 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $7,842 | +$202 +2.6% | 20 |
| 490d |  Debosnys2 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $10,189 | +$302 +3.0% | 20 |
| 490d |  Funfzig7 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $15,505 | +$1,161 +7.5% | 21 |
| 490d | xA73582F6c6B942BDE38149e43A215194485Db423 | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,660 | +$95 +3.6% | 20 |
| 490d | Car7 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $17,788 | +$1,934 +11% | 22 |
| 490d | Sandra.rachkova | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyYes4¢ → 0¢ | $1,042 | −$1,042 −100% | 20 |
| 490d | wlzzhc58 | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,024 | +$81 +4.0% | 20 |
| 490d | Cryp | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $22,524 | +$752 +3.3% | 20 |
| 490d | Mr.Fujin7 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $29,815 | +$1,341 +4.5% | 20 |
| 490d |  DoneWithIt | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,054 | −$51 −4.8% | — |
| 490d | Thatboi | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $22,172 | −$1,122 −5.1% | — |
| 490d | OneTonMan | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $20,124 | +$676 +3.4% | 20 |
| 490d | lottzhang | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | +$40 +4.0% | 20 |
| 490d | trinowaters | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,094 | +$190 +3.1% | 20 |
| 490d |  Dr.EmmetBrown | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,894 | −$210 −4.3% | — |
| 490d |  arjennnnn2 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,306 | −$268 −12% | — |
| 490d | Real-AdvertisementNew account | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,549 | +$91 +3.6% | 21 |
| 490d |  Galamaddison | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,577 | +$74 +4.7% | 20 |
| 490d |  Taroooooo2 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $3,392 | +$500 +15% | 23 |
| 490d | quantitative_ramen - 24288 | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,223 | −$197 −4.7% | — |
| 490d | arjennnnn | US military action against Iran by Friday? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $4,021 | +$169 +4.2% | 20 |
| 490d | QMG-CORE | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,020 | −$54 −5.3% | — |
| 490d |  tsys888882 fills | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $8,900 | −$338 −3.8% | — |
| 490d |  Behumble | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,133 | −$37 −3.3% | — |
| 491d | Lupaed67 | US military action against Iran by Friday? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,159 | −$41 −3.5% | — |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between June 18, and June 20, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an the US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.