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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 541d |  Trumputin | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 541d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA2 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $47,371 | +$446 +0.9% | 20 |
| 541d |  GollumGekko | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,143 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 541d | 0x253d…3307 | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 542d |  SwampRat | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,495 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 542d |  scottilicious2 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $24,724 | +$882 +3.6% | 20 |
| 543d | keribit7 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $15,622 | +$978 +6.3% | 20 |
| 543d | scottilicious3 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $16,201 | −$357 −2.2% | — |
| 544d |  TheFund2 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $7,882 | −$118 −1.5% | — |
| 546d |  MisTKy34 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $24,421 | −$977 −4.0% | — |
| 547d |  Donkov7 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $18,444 | +$1,113 +6.0% | 20 |
| 551d |  mr.ozi | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $14,629 | −$371 −2.5% | — |
| 551d | keribit2 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,327 | −$173 −5.2% | — |
| 552d |  ScamWick2 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $7,467 | +$327 +4.4% | 20 |
| 552d |  SirHarryOakes2 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,493 | −$180 −5.2% | — |
| 552d |  BigBlackGorilla | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,796 | −$68 −3.8% | — |
| 552d | MisTKy38 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $23,227 | +$1,477 +6.4% | 20 |
| 555d | denizz7 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $42,769 | +$3,324 +7.8% | 20 |
| 555d |  KimJonEn3 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $5,945 | +$456 +7.7% | 20 |
| 556d | SilentK | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,263 | −$95 −7.5% | — |
| 556d |  gopfan2 | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo93¢ → 100¢ | $12,533 | −$943 −7.5% | — |
| 557d |  czdog | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $9,400 | +$600 +6.4% | 20 |
| 557d | pop | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $6,580 | +$420 +6.4% | 20 |
| 557d | lava-lava | US military action against Iran in April? | SellYes6¢ → 0¢ | $2,019 | +$2,019 +100% | — |
| 557d |  ScoopinDooDoo | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $7,141 | +$456 +6.4% | 20 |
| 558d | lowrisk2 | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,034 | +$66 +6.4% | 20 |
| 559d | lowrisk24 | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,302 | +$98 +7.5% | 20 |
| 560d |  elreptil3 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $25,014 | +$1,852 +7.4% | 20 |
| 560d |  just.some.guy | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $5,423 | −$472 −8.7% | — |
| 563d | FunGuy | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,639 | −$161 −9.8% | — |
| 563d |  FridayNight2 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $8,354 | +$726 +8.7% | 20 |
| 563d | lava-lava | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyYes9¢ → 0¢ | $1,182 | −$1,182 −100% | 21 |
| 564d | denizz2 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $17,501 | −$1,731 −9.9% | — |
| 564d |  png1024 | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $9,000 | +$677 +7.5% | 20 |
| 566d |  Minecraft2 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $3,100 | +$233 +7.5% | 20 |
| 566d | SirHarryOakes2 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,372 | +$301 +8.9% | 20 |
| 566d | Nobody23041 | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,380 | −$120 −8.7% | — |
| 566d |  DumplingBMF2 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $5,014 | +$436 +8.7% | 20 |
| 566d | BigBlackGorilla | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,372 | +$206 +8.7% | 20 |
| 566d | FlaSh | US military action against Iran in April? | SellYes8¢ → 0¢ | $4,883 | +$4,883 +100% | — |
| 567d | nonkenny902 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,680 | +$320 +8.7% | 20 |
| 567d | ImHereForTheRewards | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,547 | −$153 −9.9% | — |
| 568d | OneTime-309 | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyYes9¢ → 0¢ | $2,483 | −$2,483 −100% | 27 |
| 568d | trader2e1 | US military action against Iran in April? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | −$101 −9.9% | — |
| 568d | Nowhere-Man4 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $11,289 | +$1,077 +9.5% | 20 |
| 569d |  Eridpnc | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,820 | +$180 +9.9% | 20 |
| 569d | FlaSh3 fills | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyYes8¢ → 0¢ | $4,118 | −$4,118 −100% | 31 |
| 569d |  debased | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $4,133 | +$311 +7.5% | 20 |
| 569d | gopfan2 | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $13,950 | +$1,050 +7.5% | 20 |
| 569d | TheFund | US military action against Iran in April? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $6,510 | +$490 +7.5% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US initiates a military action on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory or against any Iranian embassies or consulates between April 1, and April 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the US military on Iranian soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an the US missile, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the the US government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market. In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.