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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 296d | hopedieslast | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,617 | +$7 +0.1% | 20 |
| 296d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,233 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 | |
| 302d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,211 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 | |
| 305d | beatingheart | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,555 | +$17 +0.3% | 20 |
| 307d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,357 | +$16 +1.2% | 20 | |
| 308d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,327 | +$25 +1.9% | 20 | |
| 309d | abuzzin3 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $6,601 | −$98 −1.5% | — |
| 309d | robi2233 | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,808 | −$40 −1.4% | — |
| 311d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$9 +0.9% | 20 | |
| 320d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,388 | −$21 −1.5% | — | |
| 328d | Zekron | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,121 | −$16 −1.5% | — |
| 341d | Woody2024 | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,496 | −$104 −4.2% | — |
| 344d | slight- | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $14,252 | −$591 −4.1% | — |
| 354d | Kapii | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,375 | −$88 −6.4% | — |
| 359d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo78¢ → 100¢ | $2,837 | −$790 −28% | — | |
| 360d | JOHNOO | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,760 | −$240 −8.7% | — |
| 365d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellYes8¢ → 0¢ | $1,006 | +$1,006 +100% | — | |
| 366d | MojAlaki | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,125 | +$110 +9.8% | 20 |
| 376d | abuzzin | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,259 | +$251 +11% | 20 |
| 378d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $11,370 | +$1,851 +16% | 20 | |
| 378d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo86¢ → 100¢ | $1,903 | +$310 +16% | 20 | |
| 379d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyYes14¢ → 0¢ | $1,414 | −$1,414 −100% | 22 | |
| 382d | VLONA | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $8,007 | −$935 −12% | — |
| 383d | DOGWIFHAT | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,138 | −$113 −9.9% | — |
| 396d | Niseko | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellYes13¢ → 0¢ | $2,604 | +$2,604 +100% | — |
| 398d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,015 | +$301 +15% | 20 | |
| 414d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $3,000 | +$389 +13% | 20 | |
| 415d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,213 | +$331 +15% | 20 | |
| 417d | inrock302 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $3,108 | +$677 +22% | 20 |
| 423d | xasayarrr2 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo81¢ → 100¢ | $4,711 | −$1,089 −23% | — |
| 435d | romanticpaul2 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo64¢ → 100¢ | $2,969 | +$1,660 +56% | 20 |
| 438d | leitingjie2 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo78¢ → 100¢ | $3,378 | −$954 −28% | — |
| 443d | verdin | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo83¢ → 100¢ | $1,783 | −$365 −20% | — |
| 448d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellYes38¢ → 0¢ | $20,314 | +$20,314 +100% | — | |
| 449d | Domador | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,363 | +$341 +25% | 20 |
| 451d | Griboedovgrif | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,242 | −$466 −38% | — |
| 452d | Trader2936 | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellYes28¢ → 0¢ | $1,877 | +$1,877 +100% | — |
| 456d | tooric | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo66¢ → 100¢ | $1,335 | −$687 −51% | — |
| 456d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo69¢ → 100¢ | $1,533 | −$689 −45% | — | |
| 458d | Fena | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,067 | −$464 −44% | — |
| 459d | somoho | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,680 | −$653 −39% | — |
| 460d | mk999 | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,191 | −$463 −39% | — |
| 465d | SmartMoney-769 | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo71¢ → 100¢ | $1,620 | −$662 −41% | — |
| 467d | Starheel23 | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo73¢ → 100¢ | $1,446 | +$535 +37% | 20 |
| 467d | NegativeEV | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellYes28¢ → 0¢ | $1,358 | +$1,358 +100% | — |
| 468d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo70¢ → 100¢ | $1,936 | −$830 −43% | — | |
| 469d | Muddy-Yin | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo72¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$583 +39% | 23 |
| 473d | Marks10002 fills | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellYes31¢ → 0¢ | $2,361 | +$2,361 +100% | — |
| 473d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyYes44¢ → 0¢ | $12,650 | −$12,650 −100% | 23 | |
| 473d | mrbuffet | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellYes35¢ → 0¢ | $4,218 | +$4,218 +100% | — |
| 474d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellNo56¢ → 100¢ | $6,849 | −$5,450 −80% | — | |
| 477d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyYes54¢ → 0¢ | $50,185 | −$50,185 −100% | 20 | |
| 478d | Bip-Bop | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo61¢ → 100¢ | $2,155 | +$1,378 +64% | 20 |
| 480d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo59¢ → 100¢ | $2,051 | +$1,449 +71% | 20 | |
| 483d | tooric | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyNo56¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$955 +80% | 20 |
| 483d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellYes47¢ → 0¢ | $2,118 | +$2,118 +100% | — | |
| 483d | friendoffriend | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellYes42¢ → 0¢ | $1,296 | +$1,296 +100% | — |
| 486d | trader2e1 | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellYes44¢ → 0¢ | $1,032 | +$1,032 +100% | — |
| 487d | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | SellYes44¢ → 0¢ | $1,095 | +$1,095 +100% | — | |
| 487d | AlexCimmeria | US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? | BuyYes54¢ → 0¢ | $1,620 | −$1,620 −100% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over Iranian nuclear research and/or nuclear weapon development, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and Iran between February 4, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements that include the United States and Iran as parties, even if they also involve other countries (e.g., a multilateral deal like the JCPOA), will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be an official announcement by the United States and/or the Islamic Republic of Iran, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached will also qualify.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.