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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $2B | 26% | +2 pts | 0 pts | 25¢ · 27¢ (2¢) | $4.42K | in 436d |
| $1B | 56% | — | −3 pts | 55¢ · 56¢ (1¢) | $1.83K | in 436d |
| $800M | 72% | — | −1 pts | 71¢ · 73¢ (2¢) | $1.54K | in 436d |
| $4B | 6% | +1 pts | −1 pts | 6¢ · 7¢ (1¢) | $561 | in 436d |
| $3B | 11% | 0 pts | −1 pts | 10¢ · 12¢ (2¢) | $423 | in 436d |
| $300M | 94% | +1 pts | +1 pts | 94¢ · 95¢ (2¢) | $362 | in 436d |
| $200M | 96% | −2 pts | −2 pts | 94¢ · 98¢ (4¢) | $340 | in 436d |
| $500M | 89% | +2 pts | +1 pts | 88¢ · 90¢ (2¢) | $150 | in 436d |
| $100M | 98% | 0 pts | — | 98¢ · 99¢ (1¢) | $127 | in 436d |
| $5B | 3% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | $68.7 | in 436d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | odsowner | $3B | BuyNo89¢ | $1,461 | −$1 −0.0% | 4 |
| 1d | odsowner | $2B | BuyNo75¢ → 74¢ | $1,860 | −$37 −2.0% | 6 |
| 1d | odsowner | $1B | BuyNo43¢ → 44¢ | $3,834 | +$91 +2.4% | 9 |
| 1d | hotcity | $1B | BuyYes58¢ → 56¢ | $2,000 | −$97 −4.8% | 7 |
| 1d | fbwrmnr | $1B | BuyYes58¢ → 56¢ | $1,000 | −$46 −4.6% | 7 |
| 2d | 3363362 fills | $1B | SellYes61¢ → 56¢ | $7,349 | +$710 +9.7% | — |
| 3d | denysi | $1B | SellYes58¢ → 56¢ | $1,027 | +$39 +3.8% | — |
| 4d | juicelikeoj2 fills | $1B | BuyYes59¢ → 56¢ | $2,065 | −$122 −5.9% | 7 |
| 7d | eightf | $800M | SellYes72¢ | $1,515 | $0 0.0% | — |
| 7d |  gatonekki4 fills | $1B | BuyNo41¢ → 44¢ | $6,650 | +$581 +8.7% | 10 |
| 7d | tryingmyluckhere2 fills | $1B | BuyNo42¢ → 44¢ | $5,724 | +$388 +6.8% | 10 |
| 7d | 1881aa | $4B | SellNo94¢ | $1,384 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 9d | lithedge2 fills | $2B | BuyNo74¢ | $3,966 | −$22 −0.6% | 6 |
| 10d | gatonekki | $2B | BuyNo71¢ → 74¢ | $1,000 | +$34 +3.4% | 6 |
| 11d | condorcase | $500M | BuyYes90¢ → 89¢ | $3,690 | −$41 −1.1% | 4 |
| 13d |  alanhutton2 fills | $1B | SellNo47¢ → 44¢ | $4,268 | +$263 +6.2% | — |
| 14d | Cnmpoli | $500M | SellNo12¢ → 11¢ | $1,181 | +$83 +7.0% | — |
| 14d | WarriorH | $500M | BuyYes89¢ | $1,480 | $0 0.0% | 4 |
| 14d | purpletyoma | $1B | BuyYes65¢ → 56¢ | $3,575 | −$522 −15% | 7 |
| 14d |  manekineko3 fills | $1B | BuyYes63¢ → 56¢ | $15,747 | −$1,860 −12% | 7 |
| 14d | manekineko3 fills | $800M | BuyYes76¢ → 72¢ | $13,188 | −$762 −5.8% | 6 |
| 14d | manekineko3 fills | $500M | BuyYes86¢ → 89¢ | $9,988 | +$403 +4.0% | 4 |
| 14d | Premarbet6184 fills | $1B | BuyNo29¢ → 44¢ | $8,794 | +$4,573 +52% | 16 |
| 14d | ShuheX8 | $2B | BuyNo72¢ → 74¢ | $4,900 | +$136 +2.8% | 7 |
| 14d |  cryptodonald89 | $1B | BuyYes64¢ → 56¢ | $2,909 | −$385 −13% | 7 |
| 14d |  wahahao | $2B | BuyYes32¢ → 26¢ | $1,282 | −$236 −18% | 8 |
| 14d | 1881aa3 fills | $2B | SellNo71¢ → 74¢ | $3,878 | −$139 −3.6% | — |
| 14d | lee886 | $1B | BuyYes64¢ → 56¢ | $1,000 | −$133 −13% | 7 |
| 14d | 336336 | $1B | BuyYes62¢ → 56¢ | $14,579 | −$1,603 −11% | 7 |
| 14d | 0xceecee | $1B | BuyYes61¢ → 56¢ | $2,903 | −$262 −9.0% | 7 |
| 15d | alanhutton | $2B | BuyNo72¢ → 74¢ | $1,077 | +$32 +3.0% | 7 |
| 15d | evohunter | $800M | BuyYes72¢ | $2,381 | $0 0.0% | 7 |
| 17d | p1kachu2 fills | $1B | BuyYes63¢ → 56¢ | $3,301 | −$380 −12% | 7 |
| 18d |  topblastcapital | $2B | SellYes28¢ → 26¢ | $2,554 | +$201 +7.9% | — |
| 19d | bank2 | $1B | BuyYes60¢ → 56¢ | $4,335 | −$354 −8.2% | 7 |
| 20d | denysi | $1B | BuyYes59¢ → 56¢ | $1,058 | −$69 −6.6% | 7 |
| 22d | purplegatto3 fills | $1B | BuyYes63¢ → 56¢ | $6,266 | −$787 −13% | 7 |
| 23d | insiderrzzz3 fills | $1B | SellNo36¢ → 44¢ | $14,809 | −$3,736 −25% | — |
| 23d | jjjclv6 | $100M | BuyYes98¢ | $5,000 | +$13 +0.3% | 2 |
| 24d | Hilarious-Lot | $500M | SellNo16¢ → 11¢ | $1,284 | +$404 +31% | — |
| 24d |  AllByMyseIf4 fills | $800M | BuyNo26¢ → 28¢ | $6,773 | +$448 +6.6% | 16 |
| 24d | AllByMyseIf | $500M | BuyNo17¢ → 11¢ | $2,194 | −$772 −35% | 12 |
| 24d | 12334g | $2B | SellYes30¢ → 26¢ | $1,288 | +$165 +13% | — |
| 24d | Frightened-Trainer | $1B | SellYes62¢ → 56¢ | $1,226 | +$121 +9.9% | — |
| 24d | AllByMyseIf | $2B | BuyNo66¢ → 74¢ | $14,149 | +$1,694 +12% | 7 |
| 24d | imjustalarp | $1B | SellYes65¢ → 56¢ | $2,014 | +$294 +15% | — |
| 24d | imjustalarp | $2B | BuyNo66¢ → 74¢ | $2,310 | +$276 +12% | 7 |
| 24d | imjustalarp | $2B | SellYes34¢ → 26¢ | $1,024 | +$241 +24% | — |
| 25d | lucky57 | $100M | BuyYes98¢ | $5,266 | +$13 +0.3% | 2 |
| 25d | Ivankkkk7 | $1B | BuyYes66¢ → 56¢ | $1,500 | −$239 −16% | 7 |
| 25d |  0xwordjnn | $500M | SellYes84¢ → 89¢ | $2,598 | −$155 −6.0% | — |
| 27d |  wolfofshelbyy | $800M | SellYes76¢ → 72¢ | $2,334 | +$124 +5.3% | — |
| 27d | VARBeliever3 fills | $1B | BuyYes72¢ → 56¢ | $19,497 | −$4,441 −23% | 7 |
| 27d | Normal-Nudge-AlluviumNew account | $1B | BuyYes68¢ → 56¢ | $2,040 | −$375 −18% | 11 |
| 27d | AK4747 | $2B | BuyYes37¢ → 26¢ | $1,095 | −$313 −29% | 7 |
| 27d | jumpsquad2 fills | $2B | BuyYes36¢ → 26¢ | $4,000 | −$1,118 −28% | 11 |
| 27d | jumpsquad2 fills | $1B | BuyYes68¢ → 56¢ | $20,000 | −$3,713 −19% | 7 |
| 27d |  LucyandDavid | $1B | SellNo31¢ → 44¢ | $1,298 | −$565 −44% | — |
| 27d | Manmansumout | $800M | BuyNo20¢ → 28¢ | $2,530 | +$1,012 +40% | 12 |
| 27d | Premarbet618 | $800M | BuyNo18¢ → 28¢ | $1,953 | +$1,085 +56% | 11 |
wahahao9,928 sharesAllByMyseIf22,861 shares
Hyperlong11,262 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Variational's governance token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No." The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch. The FDV will be determined using the total token supply multiplied by the token price. "1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Variational doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 26¢ for $2B means the market gives it about 26%.