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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 5 | 100% | +31 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| February 24 | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 25 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 26 | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 27 | 0% | +2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 28 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 1 | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 2 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 3 | 0% | −11 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 4 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 6 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 7 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 8 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 9 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 10 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 11 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 12 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 13 | 0% | +2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 14 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 15 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 16 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 17 | 0% | −6 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 18 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 19 | 0% | −4 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 20 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 21 | 0% | −8 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 22 | 0% | −12 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 23 | 0% | −13 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 24 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 25 | 0% | −14 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 26 | 0% | −10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 27 | 0% | −11 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 28 | 0% | −14 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 29 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 30 | 0% | −9 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | −11 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| No token launch by March 31 | 0% | −5 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 232d | ccc11ttx2 fills | March 5 | SellYes>99¢ | $7,386 | −$7 −0.1% | — |
| 232d | jetLLLLLLLL | March 5 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,172 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 232d | yulen | March 5 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,717 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 232d |  notdegenanymor3 | March 5 | SellYes>99¢ | $5,994 | −$6 −0.1% | — |
| 232d | believerver3 fills | March 5 | SellYes>99¢ | $8,076 | −$21 −0.3% | — |
| 232d | roflingbets | March 5 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,855 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 232d |  Oxhunt2049 | March 5 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,560 | +$7 +0.1% | 2 |
| 232d | JerryY | March 5 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,525 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 233d |  pepess | March 5 | SellYes>99¢ | $4,755 | −$10 −0.2% | — |
| 233d | KVVN | March 5 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,863 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 233d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | March 5 | BuyYes>99¢ | $11,550 | +$23 +0.2% | 2 |
| 233d | onekey095 fills | March 5 | BuyYes>99¢ | $24,161 | +$93 +0.4% | 2 |
| 233d |  TTokin | March 5 | BuyYes100¢ | $2,081 | +$10 +0.5% | 2 |
| 233d | pepess | March 5 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,755 | +$10 +0.2% | 2 |
| 233d | yulen | March 5 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,710 | +$9 +0.5% | 2 |
| 233d | bird2222 fills | March 5 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $6,488 | +$212 +3.3% | 2 |
| 233d | rated2 fills | No token launch by March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,102 | +$2 +0.1% | 2 |
| 234d | TommyKFCV50 | No token launch by March 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,013 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 235d | ccc11ttx3 fills | March 5 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $6,493 | +$283 +4.4% | 2 |
| 235d | Cressida-Fernsby23 | March 2 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,466 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 235d | 00SevenB | March 2 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 235d | mang2000 | March 5 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,103 | +$35 +1.1% | 2 |
| 235d |  hack-vc | March 5 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,274 | +$13 +1.0% | 2 |
| 235d | Matelleti | March 5 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$19 +1.1% | 2 |
| 235d | rated | March 3 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,051 | +$1 +0.1% | 2 |
| 235d | chriszyy3 | March 4 | BuyNo100¢ | $3,740 | +$19 +0.5% | 2 |
| 235d | KAKATY2 fills | March 5 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,409 | +$68 +2.0% | 2 |
| 235d | didiaodeshuaige2 fills | March 5 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,459 | −$96 −1.0% | — |
| 235d | 0x15ce9A512F0d4475ABb6DbA71ae702E2Dc17032 fills | March 5 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $24,787 | −$213 −0.9% | — |
| 235d | rgrgr55 | March 4 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,740 | +$9 +0.2% | 2 |
| 235d | Adelius | March 5 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,655 | −$10 −0.6% | — |
| 235d | Adelius | March 5 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,657 | +$8 +0.5% | 2 |
| 235d | 8666ghppgxsb | March 5 | BuyYes>99¢ | $30,041 | +$76 +0.3% | 2 |
| 235d | Ioggfrtwww57 | March 5 | BuyYes>99¢ | $30,000 | +$107 +0.4% | 2 |
| 235d | Attentive-ConsistencyNew account | March 5 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $40,883 | +$447 +1.1% | 2 |
| 235d | tphhh2 fills | March 8 | BuyNo>99¢ | $12,757 | +$13 +0.1% | 2 |
| 235d | JerryY | March 5 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,282 | +$18 +1.4% | 2 |
| 235d | tphhh | March 7 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,148 | +$20 +0.2% | 2 |
| 235d | tphhh | March 9 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,295 | +$4 +0.1% | 2 |
| 235d | GggJjkkk | March 5 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,021 | +$13 +1.3% | 2 |
| 235d | kevin-airdrop2 fills | March 5 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $11,462 | +$337 +2.9% | 2 |
| 235d | 0x15ce9A512F0d4475ABb6DbA71ae702E2Dc17036 fills | March 5 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $35,182 | +$6,291 +18% | 2 |
| 235d | JJ121885 | March 5 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$79 +3.2% | 2 |
| 235d | tphhh | No token launch by March 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,463 | +$33 +0.2% | 2 |
| 235d | didiaodeshuaige2 fills | March 5 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $10,859 | +$452 +4.2% | 2 |
| 235d | ishakeyourbets | March 5 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,168 | +$132 +4.2% | 2 |
| 235d | nnur | March 5 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$63 +4.2% | 2 |
| 235d |  gautamgg | March 5 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,187 | +$49 +4.2% | 2 |
| 235d | woyaoxiachele2 fills | March 5 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $7,680 | +$320 +4.2% | 2 |
| 235d |  gghtx | March 5 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $18,073 | +$753 +4.2% | 2 |
| 235d |  zhupercyclist | March 5 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $14,400 | +$600 +4.2% | 2 |
| 235d | roflingbets | March 5 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $4,800 | +$200 +4.2% | 2 |
| 235d |  boring...2 fills | March 5 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $5,247 | +$614 +12% | 2 |
| 235d |  Newsance | March 5 | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,290 | +$175 +7.6% | 2 |
| 235d | lugosix2 fills | March 5 | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $5,483 | −$349 −6.4% | — |
| 235d | Revolving-Shear | March 8 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,562 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 235d | Educated-Moonlight | March 8 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,564 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 235d | Everlasting-Bibliography | March 8 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,547 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 235d | Grounded-RangeNew account | March 5 | SellYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | −$55 −5.0% | — |
| 235d | Revolving-Shear | March 8 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,562 | +$9 +0.6% | 2 |
AllByMyseIf7,809 shares
Rockyss5,380 sharesThis market will resolve to the first date (in ET) on which Opinion launches its governance token. The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Opinion (https://x.com/opinionlabsxyz), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for March 5 means the market gives it about 100%.