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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez | 12% | −9 pts | — | 11¢ · 12¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Juan Reyes Mejía González | 8% | −3 pts | +1 pts | 6¢ · 9¢ (3¢) | — | in 69d |
| Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar | 16% | −3 pts | +2 pts | 13¢ · 18¢ (5¢) | — | in 69d |
| Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan | 13% | −1 pts | −1 pts | 6¢ · 20¢ (14¢) | — | in 69d |
| Juan Pablo Ledezma | 12% | — | −1 pts | 10¢ · 13¢ (3¢) | — | in 69d |
| Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar | 11% | −6 pts | −6 pts | 8¢ · 13¢ (5¢) | $99.7 | in 69d |
| Ricardo Ruiz Velasco | 6% | −4 pts | −14 pts | 4¢ · 8¢ (4¢) | $15.9 | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 59d | Railcool | Juan Reyes Mejía González | SellYes25¢ → 8¢ | $4,120 | +$2,884 +70% | — |
| 59d | Railcool | Juan Reyes Mejía González | BuyYes95¢ → 8¢ | $15,756 | −$14,512 −92% | 20 |
| 149d | Railcool | Ricardo Ruiz Velasco | SellYes26¢ → 6¢ | $7,810 | +$6,010 +77% | — |
| 149d | Railcool | Ricardo Ruiz Velasco | BuyYes96¢ → 6¢ | $28,809 | −$27,008 −94% | 23 |
| 191d | Railcool3 fills | Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez | SellYes51¢ → 12¢ | $14,520 | +$11,254 +78% | — |
| 191d | Railcool3 fills | Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez | BuyYes95¢ → 12¢ | $27,114 | −$23,848 −88% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time. A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 12¢ for Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez means the market gives it about 12%.