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Polymarket · WorldClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | 100% | +27 pts | +71 pts | 99¢ · >99¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| South Korea | 100% | +92 pts | +43 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Mexico | 100% | +35 pts | +22 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| Brazil | 0% | 0 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| India | 0% | −1 pts | −20 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Canada | 0% | 0 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Germany | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Argentina | 0% | 0 pts | −12 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| France | 0% | 0 pts | −1 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Switzerland | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · 1¢ | — | ended |
| Australia | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Israel | 0% | −2 pts | −5 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 357d | wubddh | Switzerland | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,002 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 357d | wubddh | France | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,940 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 357d | wubddh | Germany | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,406 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 357d | Dordorbaby | France | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,063 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 357d | Dordorbaby | Australia | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,001 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 357d | Dordorbaby | Argentina | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,816 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 357d |  KKX2 fills | Israel | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,466 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 357d | KKX | Canada | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 357d | KKX | Australia | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 357d |  prescient | Australia | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,197 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 358d | ASAZZ | Germany | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,039 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 358d | VCzZA | France | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,027 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 359d | MAGA.ONE | China | BuyYes>99¢ | $17,243 | +$17 +0.1% | 20 |
| 359d | rwo | China | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,536 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 359d |  Car | China | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,063 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 359d |  JoeTrum | China | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,111 | +$7 +0.6% | 20 |
| 359d |  Oompa-Loompa | China | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,294 | +$100 +2.3% | 21 |
| 359d |  Frosen2 fills | China | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,833 | +$165 +4.3% | 21 |
| 359d | mybigmoney | Brazil | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 359d |  ComingBack | Brazil | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,101 | +$25 +2.2% | 21 |
| 359d |  0xf1434f7d6de30bfbbdfeadd075a1f40f | China | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,037 | +$47 +4.5% | 21 |
| 359d |  Dapsy | China | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,132 | +$60 +5.3% | 21 |
| 359d | mcorleone | China | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $3,550 | +$347 +9.8% | 22 |
| 359d |  Imeancurry | China | BuyYes84¢ → 100¢ | $1,305 | +$255 +20% | 23 |
| 359d | Imeancurry | South Korea | SellYes>99¢ | $2,305 | −$7 −0.3% | — |
| 359d |  ScottyNooo | China | BuyYes79¢ → 100¢ | $1,401 | +$383 +27% | 24 |
| 359d | prescient | South Korea | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,002 | −$10 −1.0% | — |
| 359d |  aenews2 | South Korea | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $1,220 | +$94 +7.7% | 21 |
| 359d | qwerkk | South Korea | BuyYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,468 | +$261 +7.5% | 21 |
| 360d | Giving-Mortality | South Korea | BuyYes57¢ → 100¢ | $1,140 | +$860 +75% | 25 |
| 360d |  AllByMyseIf | South Korea | SellNo40¢ → 0¢ | $1,681 | +$1,681 +100% | — |
| 360d | Frosen | South Korea | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,796 | +$778 +43% | 25 |
| 360d |  iForgor | South Korea | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | +$322 +30% | 24 |
| 360d | hollyber2 fills | South Korea | BuyNo48¢ → 0¢ | $4,077 | −$4,077 −100% | 23 |
| 360d | Zodia | South Korea | SellYes62¢ → 100¢ | $1,198 | −$734 −61% | — |
| 360d |  O3O.legacy.0 | South Korea | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $1,644 | +$581 +35% | 24 |
| 360d |  CherryB16 | South Korea | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,220 | −$353 −29% | — |
| 360d | torrest7 fills | South Korea | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $16,776 | +$2,973 +18% | 23 |
| 360d | mcorleone | South Korea | BuyYes92¢ → 100¢ | $4,600 | +$400 +8.7% | 21 |
| 361d | torrest | South Korea | BuyNo89¢ → 0¢ | $3,775 | −$3,775 −100% | 22 |
| 361d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | Mexico | SellYes>99¢ | $3,377 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 361d |  Allinnothing | Mexico | SellYes>99¢ | $3,362 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 361d | 0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | Mexico | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,377 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 361d | AllByMyseIf | Mexico | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,994 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 361d | Allinnothing | Mexico | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,695 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 362d | AllByMyseIf | China | SellYes64¢ → 100¢ | $1,124 | −$645 −57% | — |
| 368d | wubddh | Australia | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | +$34 +3.2% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement over tariffs, defined as a publicly announced mutual agreement, is reached between the United States and the listed country/entity between October 1, and October 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If such an agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes", regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. Agreements to extend tariff exemptions will qualify if announced as an individualized extension. However, tariff exemptions which are announced as part of a class of exemptions and do not reflect individual deals - such as Trump’s April 9 pause on all reciprocal tariffs other than those on China - will not qualify (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/04/modifying-reciprocal-tariff-rates-to-reflect-trading-partner-retaliation-and-alignment/). Informal and unilateral announcements which do not constitute a finalized agreement will not count. Agreements that include the United States and the listed country/entity as parties, even if they also involve other countries, will qualify for resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting confirming an agreement has been reached.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for China means the market gives it about 100%.