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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +90 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 717d | futurific | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellHarris97¢ → 100¢ | $8,016 | −$239 −3.0% | — |
| 720d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellTrump55¢ → 0¢ | $4,183 | +$4,183 +100% | — |
| 721d | migm | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellTrump70¢ → 0¢ | $1,067 | +$1,067 +100% | — |
| 721d | ZalSky | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump78¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 11 |
| 723d | futurific | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyHarris61¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$3,256 +65% | 12 |
| 724d |  NadyaSuleman3 fills | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellTrump82¢ → 0¢ | $4,255 | +$4,255 +100% | — |
| 724d | The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump91¢ → 0¢ | $9,536 | −$9,536 −100% | 11 |
| 726d | NadyaSuleman2 fills | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump84¢ → 0¢ | $2,880 | −$2,880 −100% | 10 |
| 727d | DumbMoney2.02 fills | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump71¢ → 0¢ | $4,833 | −$4,833 −100% | 10 |
| 730d | Dthhg | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump68¢ → 0¢ | $2,040 | −$2,040 −100% | 10 |
| 730d | Hfhtfu | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump68¢ → 0¢ | $2,040 | −$2,040 −100% | 10 |
| 730d | Wfdhfgd | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump67¢ → 0¢ | $1,776 | −$1,776 −100% | 10 |
| 730d | Fhkhgh | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump68¢ → 0¢ | $1,904 | −$1,904 −100% | 10 |
| 730d | Rough-Specialty | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellTrump62¢ → 0¢ | $1,453 | +$1,453 +100% | — |
| 731d | Gfhhkl | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,260 | +$1,260 +100% | — |
| 731d | Asdfdgdf | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,260 | +$1,260 +100% | — |
| 731d | Gfhhkl | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,260 | −$1,260 −100% | 10 |
| 731d | Asdfdgdf | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,260 | −$1,260 −100% | 10 |
| 731d | DAafjhgl | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,260 | +$1,260 +100% | — |
| 731d | Sfhgfjh | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,260 | +$1,260 +100% | — |
| 731d | DAafjhgl | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,260 | −$1,260 −100% | 10 |
| 731d | Sfhgfjh | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,260 | −$1,260 −100% | 10 |
| 731d | Sdfgjkj | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,260 | +$1,260 +100% | — |
| 731d | Affghgh | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,260 | +$1,260 +100% | — |
| 731d | Sdfgjkj | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,260 | −$1,260 −100% | 10 |
| 731d | Affghgh | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump63¢ → 0¢ | $1,260 | −$1,260 −100% | 10 |
| 731d |  TheDuck | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyHarris31¢ → 100¢ | $2,200 | +$4,937 +224% | 13 |
| 732d | PrinceHal | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellTrump74¢ → 0¢ | $1,480 | +$1,480 +100% | — |
| 733d | Qdgdfsgf | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump60¢ → 0¢ | $1,740 | −$1,740 −100% | 10 |
| 733d | Qdgdfsgf | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellHarris40¢ → 100¢ | $1,120 | −$1,680 −150% | — |
| 733d | PrinceHal | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyTrump59¢ → 0¢ | $1,171 | −$1,171 −100% | 10 |
| 734d |  AllYourMoniesAreBelongToMe | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellTrump58¢ → 0¢ | $1,029 | +$1,029 +100% | — |
| 737d | QGHVFCX | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellHarris62¢ → 100¢ | $1,178 | −$722 −61% | — |
| 737d | QGHVFCX | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyHarris62¢ → 100¢ | $1,240 | +$760 +61% | 10 |
| 737d | Skjkjcl | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellHarris65¢ → 100¢ | $1,516 | −$816 −54% | — |
| 737d | Skjkjcl | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyHarris65¢ → 100¢ | $1,516 | +$816 +54% | 10 |
| 738d | FHFGfgjhg | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellHarris65¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | −$540 −54% | — |
| 738d | FHFGfgjhg | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyHarris65¢ → 100¢ | $1,004 | +$540 +54% | 10 |
| 738d | HJYoihgj | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellHarris63¢ → 100¢ | $1,260 | −$740 −59% | — |
| 738d | HJYoihgj | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyHarris63¢ → 100¢ | $1,260 | +$740 +59% | 10 |
| 738d | Adsfgffhd | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellHarris68¢ → 100¢ | $1,360 | −$640 −47% | — |
| 738d | Adsfgffhd | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyHarris68¢ → 100¢ | $1,360 | +$640 +47% | 10 |
| 738d | DDsfdgffhg | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellHarris65¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | −$700 −54% | — |
| 738d | DDsfdgffhg | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyHarris65¢ → 100¢ | $1,300 | +$700 +54% | 10 |
| 739d | Asss | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellHarris64¢ → 100¢ | $1,280 | −$720 −56% | — |
| 739d | Asss | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyHarris67¢ → 100¢ | $1,340 | +$660 +49% | 10 |
| 739d | Cksow | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellHarris64¢ → 100¢ | $1,280 | −$720 −56% | — |
| 739d | Cksow | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyHarris67¢ → 100¢ | $1,340 | +$660 +49% | 10 |
| 739d | Ckdw | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellHarris66¢ → 100¢ | $1,320 | −$680 −52% | — |
| 739d | Ckdw | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyHarris68¢ → 100¢ | $1,360 | +$640 +47% | 10 |
| 739d | ASfte | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellHarris67¢ → 100¢ | $1,340 | −$660 −49% | — |
| 739d | ASfte | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyHarris67¢ → 100¢ | $1,340 | +$660 +49% | 10 |
| 739d | Dw42 | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellHarris64¢ → 100¢ | $1,280 | −$720 −56% | — |
| 739d | Dw42 | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyHarris67¢ → 100¢ | $1,340 | +$660 +49% | 10 |
| 739d | ASDAhkjujk | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellHarris66¢ → 100¢ | $1,320 | −$680 −52% | — |
| 739d | ASDAhkjujk | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyHarris66¢ → 100¢ | $1,320 | +$680 +52% | 10 |
| 739d | Adsfdg | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | SellHarris64¢ → 100¢ | $1,280 | −$720 −56% | — |
| 739d | Adsfdg | Who will 538 predict to win the election? | BuyHarris64¢ → 100¢ | $1,280 | +$720 +56% | 10 |
TheDuck1,047 shares
RememberAmalek1 sharesThis market will resolve to "Harris" if according to FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast Kamala Harris has a greater chance than Donald Trump of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election . This market will resolve to "Trump" if according to FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast Donald Trump has a greater chance than Kamala Harris of winning the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. If FiveThirtyEight's final election forecast is tied (there is no favorite), this market will resolve to 50-50. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the headline numbers listed in the center of the page which display the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump wins 51 times out of 100")
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.