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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 0% | −2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Nancy Pelosi | 100% | +30 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| Ilhan Omar | 100% | +87 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| Bernie Sanders | 0% | −53 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Hakeem Jeffries | 100% | +2 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| John Fetterman | 100% | +37 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| Chuck Schumer | 100% | +17 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| Mitch McConnell | 0% | −75 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | — |
| Thomas Massie | 100% | +25 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | — |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 239d | chocolate123 | Bernie Sanders | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,270 | +$9 +0.7% | 4 |
| 240d | Trustinghorse | Hakeem Jeffries | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,578 | +$14 +0.4% | 4 |
| 240d |  bamesjond2 fills | Ilhan Omar | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,286 | +$15 +0.2% | 4 |
| 240d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Nancy Pelosi | BuyYes100¢ | $2,985 | +$15 +0.5% | 4 |
| 240d | bamesjond2 fills | Nancy Pelosi | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,075 | +$51 +1.0% | 4 |
| 240d | Trustinghorse | Nancy Pelosi | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,522 | +$102 +6.7% | 4 |
| 240d | bamesjond | Mitch McConnell | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,980 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 241d | Trustinghorse | John Fetterman | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,951 | +$8 +0.4% | 4 |
| 241d | Trustinghorse3 fills | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,438 | +$145 +3.3% | 5 |
| 242d |  iutwpfal | Nancy Pelosi | BuyYes71¢ → 100¢ | $1,049 | +$429 +41% | 4 |
| 242d | iutwpfal | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,384 | +$135 +9.8% | 6 |
Eaglewin41411,651 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual is seen applauding at any point during during Donald Trump’s 2026 State of the Union address, scheduled for February 24, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The listed individual must be visibly clapping their hands together on the C-SPAN video feed to qualify. Other gestures, such as nodding, standing without clapping, or tapping hands on a surface, will not count towards the resolution of this market. Only applause from the start of when Trump begins audibly speaking at the podium during his speech until the moment he finishes will qualify. Applause directly before or after will NOT qualify. If the 2026 address to Congress does not occur by March 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be the C-SPAN video feed.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez means the market gives it about 0%.