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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Sullivan | 100% | +10 pts | +28 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Bill Cassidy | 100% | +50 pts | +46 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Rand Paul | 100% | +24 pts | +46 pts | 88¢ · 100¢ (12¢) | — | in 69d |
| Mitch McConnell | 0% | −8 pts | −34 pts | — · 3¢ | — | in 69d |
| John Curtis | 100% | +31 pts | +47 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | in 69d |
| John Cornyn | 100% | +17 pts | +30 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| John Fetterman | 0% | −30 pts | −56 pts | — · 3¢ | — | in 69d |
| Thom Tillis | 100% | +3 pts | +12 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | in 69d |
| Susan Collins | 100% | +34 pts | +45 pts | 83¢ · 100¢ (17¢) | — | in 69d |
| Lisa Murkowski | 100% | +26 pts | +30 pts | 54¢ · 100¢ (47¢) | — | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 87d |  AgricultureSecretary | Rand Paul | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,536 | +$19 +1.3% | 10 |
| 87d | 0xa14b…05e4 | Dan Sullivan | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,148 | +$60 +2.8% | 10 |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed Senator votes “Yea” on the first final U.S. Senate confirmation vote on the nomination of Jay Clayton to be Director of National Intelligence. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The vote refers to the first final confirmation vote on the nomination in the full chamber, not including committee votes or procedural motions. If the nomination passes unanimously or without individual voting (e.g. a voice vote), this market will resolve to “Yes”. If the nomination is rejected unanimously or without individual voting, this market will resolve to “No”. If no qualifying vote is held by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. If a formally submitted nomination is withdrawn or returned to the President before reaching a final confirmation vote, this market will resolve immediately to “No”. No attempts by a legislator to change their vote after the vote has been closed shall be considered for this market. The resolution sources will be official Senate voting records and a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Dan Sullivan means the market gives it about 100%.