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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +1 pts | +5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 282d | 0x955c…990f | Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,638 | +$8 +0.1% | 4 |
| 282d |  HowToBasic2 fills | Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,200 | +$7 +0.2% | 4 |
| 283d |  aenews23 fills | Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,118 | +$105 +1.5% | 4 |
| 288d |  Oompa-Loompa | Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,296 | +$28 +2.1% | 4 |
| 288d |  cookiejar2 fills | Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $8,551 | +$340 +4.0% | 4 |
| 294d | 387411007415611814092217897387 | Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,658 | +$182 +11% | 4 |
| 295d | Gennedy2 fills | Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? | SellYes94¢ → 100¢ | $4,419 | −$281 −6.4% | — |
| 297d | Mrneverpullsout2 fills | Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $6,389 | +$145 +2.3% | 4 |
| 297d |  Roro22 | Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,657 | +$104 +6.3% | 6 |
| 297d | shelle2 fills | Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,003 | +$192 +6.4% | 6 |
| 304d |  gopfan22 fills | Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $5,564 | −$395 −7.1% | — |
| 312d | Gennedy2 fills | Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,484 | +$151 +6.1% | 4 |
| 336d | Zbinik | Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,107 | −$151 −14% | — |
| 385d | gopfan22 fills | Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? | BuyYes53¢ → 100¢ | $4,982 | +$4,385 +88% | 4 |
| 387d |  AlmostAndy | Will 2025 be the second hottest year on record? | BuyNo45¢ → 0¢ | $2,198 | −$2,198 −100% | 5 |
gopfan24,512 shares
donglai662,576 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for 2025 shows the second greatest increase of any previously recorded year when it is released. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An anomaly which is the second greatest of any previously recorded year for 2025 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes" immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for 2024 and/or 2025 is later revised. The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "Land-Ocean Temperature Index (C)" under the column "No_Smoothing" in the row "2025" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/graph_data/Global_Mean_Estimates_based_on_Land_and_Ocean_Data/graph.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used. If no information for 2025 is provided by NASA by March 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.