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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 228d | Steel-PassiveNew account | Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Senate Primary? | BuyNo82¢ → 100¢ | $4,496 | +$1,004 +22% | 19 |
| 228d |  llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Senate Primary? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,849 | +$3 +0.2% | 10 |
| 229d | 0x955c…990f3 fills | Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Senate Primary? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,595 | +$139 +1.0% | 10 |
| 234d |  nibelung.retired | Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Senate Primary? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,402 | +$71 +5.1% | 10 |
| 235d |  Donny.T | Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Senate Primary? | SellNo80¢ → 100¢ | $1,398 | −$346 −25% | — |
| 241d | Aednomy | Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Senate Primary? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,049 | −$57 −2.8% | — |
| 241d | Aednomy | Will a candidate win outright in the Texas GOP Senate Primary? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,093 | +$47 +2.2% | 10 |
Senate Primary elections in Texas are scheduled to be held on March 3, 2026, with potential runoffs on May 26 if no candidate receives a majority. A candidate may win the primary “outright” by winning >50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Republican primary for United States Senator from Texas outright in the first round of this primary election. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Texas Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting that a candidate has won outright in the first round may suffice.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.