Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 296d |  elmcap22 fills | Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $20,110 | +$267 +1.3% | 4 |
| 304d |  VegemiteLover | Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,797 | +$19 +0.3% | 4 |
| 313d | 0xDB5 | Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,928 | −$19 −1.0% | — |
| 325d |  Justitia | Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? | SellNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,184 | −$57 −2.6% | — |
| 329d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly2 fills | Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $11,490 | +$1,283 +11% | 4 |
| 338d | ruby007 | Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,118 | +$88 +4.2% | 4 |
| 352d |  edisonyang | Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? | BuyNo91¢ → 100¢ | $1,092 | +$108 +9.9% | 4 |
| 411d | 025d9 fills | Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $16,960 | +$1,503 +8.9% | 4 |
| 437d | kyledarian | Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? | SellNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,268 | −$192 −15% | — |
| 443d | tennisbowling | Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,500 | +$172 +11% | 4 |
| 465d | kyledarian | Will a Chinese AI model become #1 in 2025? | BuyNo89¢ → 100¢ | $1,151 | +$149 +13% | 4 |
TonerCartridge772 shares
suzhu22 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any model owned by a Chinese company has the highest arena score on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." If a Chinese AI model ties for #1 Arena score, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.