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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31, 2026 | 5% | −1 pts | +1 pts | 3¢ · 7¢ (4¢) | $284 | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 67d | gorovi2 fills | December 31, 2026 | SellNo96¢ → 95¢ | $4,812 | +$52 +1.1% | — |
| 101d |  FortunatelyFestive | December 31, 2026 | SellNo96¢ → 95¢ | $1,045 | +$5 +0.4% | — |
| 118d |  0xbadbeef | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,408 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 119d | 567atlas | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,160 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 119d | 567atlas | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,104 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 121d | gorovi3 fills | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | SellNo>99¢ | $7,966 | −$31 −0.4% | — |
| 128d | FortunatelyFestive | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,133 | −$15 −0.7% | — |
| 128d | Bikesarethebest | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,437 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 148d | gorovi5 fills | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo90¢ → 95¢ | $14,670 | +$907 +6.2% | 11 |
| 168d | gorovi2 fills | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $21,572 | +$594 +2.8% | 4 |
| 173d | FortunatelyFestive | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$28 +2.3% | 4 |
| 197d |  debased | December 31, 2026 | SellNo88¢ → 95¢ | $1,026 | −$84 −8.2% | — |
| 199d |  Donny.T2 fills | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $5,306 | −$102 −1.9% | — |
| 199d | debased | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,749 | −$131 −1.9% | — |
| 199d | Votei14Voude22 | December 31, 2026 | SellNo89¢ → 95¢ | $1,211 | −$84 −7.0% | — |
| 200d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | December 31, 2026 | SellNo89¢ → 95¢ | $1,478 | −$103 −7.0% | — |
| 200d | Laurenman2 fills | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,414 | −$104 −4.3% | — |
| 201d | enrico-vasaio | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,227 | +$93 +4.2% | 4 |
| 203d | Laurenman | December 31, 2026 | SellNo89¢ → 95¢ | $1,097 | −$76 −7.0% | — |
| 204d | Jan777 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo88¢ → 95¢ | $4,286 | +$360 +8.4% | 12 |
| 204d | debased2 fills | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,690 | +$313 +6.7% | 4 |
| 205d | Prosperity168 | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | BuyYes12¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 7 |
| 205d | Prosperity168 | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes19¢ → 5¢ | $1,163 | −$864 −74% | 25 |
| 205d | Safe-JewelryNew account | December 31, 2026 | BuyYes17¢ → 5¢ | $1,500 | −$1,077 −72% | 42 |
| 205d | Votei14Voude22 | December 31, 2026 | BuyNo86¢ → 95¢ | $1,170 | +$126 +11% | 13 |
| 205d | 0xbadbeef | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,226 | +$81 +6.6% | 4 |
| 225d | keribit | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,404 | −$47 −1.9% | — |
| 296d |  ZhangMuZhi- | Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,624 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 337d | keribit | Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,163 | +$14 +1.2% | 4 |
| 348d | hkeewgkeu4sp | Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,526 | +$54 +1.5% | 4 |
| 348d | icsajoaqxe44 | Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,519 | +$54 +1.5% | 4 |
| 348d | eidgow340anf | Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,504 | +$61 +1.7% | 4 |
| 348d | npupief0lhk6 | Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,527 | +$61 +1.7% | 4 |
| 348d | hwtahsvy8bk9 | Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,490 | +$25 +0.7% | 4 |
| 348d | bksegmxs6ifw | Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,490 | +$25 +0.7% | 4 |
| 351d | ncmfvqlyc88z | Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,472 | +$53 +1.5% | 4 |
| 351d | trvdssu07k0x | Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,482 | +$53 +1.5% | 4 |
| 409d | NeH | Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,345 | −$227 −6.8% | — |
| 460d | ChampaLiberation | Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,062 | +$56 +5.3% | 4 |
| 491d | NeH | Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,461 | +$93 +6.4% | 4 |
| 494d | denizz4 fills | Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | SellNo91¢ → 100¢ | $6,882 | −$658 −9.6% | — |
| 598d | denizz2 fills | Will any country leave NATO in 2025? | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $6,658 | +$1,655 +25% | 4 |
Donkov1,700 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if any member state formally withdraws from NATO or provides an official notice of denunciation to NATO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A notice of denunciation refers to the submission of a notice of withdrawal as per Article 13 of the North Atlantic Treaty. A country's exit from NATO’s integrated military command structure will not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes". That country must either withdraw or submit a notice of denunciation to trigger a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source will be official information from the relevant government and NATO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 5¢ for December 31, 2026 means the market gives it about 5%.