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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | +32 pts | +61 pts | 94¢ · 95¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 355d |  duderr | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,400 | +$44 +1.0% | 4 |
| 355d |  0x6e8f80ca0cddb8d3f207dc5147ac0e6062ae162 | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $8,958 | +$277 +3.1% | 4 |
| 355d |  wish- | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,940 | +$60 +3.1% | 4 |
| 355d | nonkenny90 | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,383 | +$73 +5.3% | 4 |
| 355d | screechingwolf | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,606 | +$85 +5.3% | 4 |
| 355d | 0xb20b…8da0 | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $3,570 | −$284 −8.0% | — |
| 355d |  tourists2 fills | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $3,402 | +$569 +17% | 4 |
| 355d |  Allinnothing | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $3,021 | +$299 +9.9% | 4 |
| 355d |  BlackSky123 | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,994 | +$296 +9.9% | 4 |
| 355d |  Pulser | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,092 | +$108 +9.9% | 4 |
| 355d |  Dropper2 fills | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes78¢ → 100¢ | $2,520 | +$695 +28% | 4 |
| 355d |  Car | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $3,612 | +$493 +14% | 4 |
| 355d |  25usdc | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,759 | +$241 +14% | 4 |
| 355d | ganatalak | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,581 | +$218 +14% | 4 |
| 355d |  aenews22 fills | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $13,497 | +$2,117 +16% | 4 |
| 355d |  ScottyNooo4 fills | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $8,391 | +$3,196 +38% | 4 |
| 355d | 0x955c…990f | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $2,707 | +$920 +34% | 4 |
| 356d | FETX998 | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyNo72¢ → 0¢ | $1,400 | −$1,400 −100% | 4 |
| 358d | xiaojiren | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $1,273 | −$1,273 −100% | 4 |
| 375d | Medium-TenantNew account | Will China lift rare earths export ban by December 31? | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 12 |
AllByMyseIf2,838 sharesOn April 4, China implemented a series of restrictions on the export of a variety of rare earth metals. You can read more about that here: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/13/business/china-rare-earths-exports.html This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Chinese government officially lifts, removes, or reduces any of the export restrictions placed on rare earth metals on April 4, between July 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The issuance of a qualifying official act by China within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, even if the lifting or reduction of the stated export ban does not come into effect until after this market's resolution date. The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.