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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| January 9 | 0% | −3 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| March 31 | 0% | +1 pts | −3 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| February 28 | 0% | 0 pts | −2 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| January 16 | 0% | −1 pts | −7 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| December 31 | 0% | −1 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 236d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $29,930 | +$30 +0.1% | 4 |
| 236d |  Noooooooop | December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $6,123 | +$12 +0.2% | 4 |
| 236d |  andromeda-galaxy | March 31 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,992 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 236d | Serene-Decision2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $46,744 | +$406 +0.9% | 4 |
| 236d | Domador | February 28 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,405 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 236d | Square-MusicNew account | December 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,598 | −$10 −0.6% | — |
| 236d | Other-StitchNew account | December 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,523 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 236d | Flustered-ParenthesisNew account | December 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,551 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 236d | Square-MusicNew account | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,598 | +$10 +0.6% | 4 |
| 236d | Other-StitchNew account | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,523 | +$9 +0.6% | 4 |
| 236d | Flustered-ParenthesisNew account | December 31 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,551 | +$9 +0.6% | 4 |
| 236d |  OraculumNobius2 fills | February 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,547 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 236d |  Car3 fills | March 31 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $13,356 | +$397 +3.0% | 4 |
| 236d | Car | December 31 | BuyNo>99¢ | $16,977 | +$67 +0.4% | 4 |
| 237d |  UwO | February 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $11,721 | +$24 +0.2% | 4 |
| 237d | wubddh | February 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,977 | +$23 +0.2% | 4 |
| 237d |  Casdifer | February 28 | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,082 | +$85 +0.3% | 4 |
| 237d | DawnOfYemen | December 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,019 | −$10 −1.0% | — |
| 237d | 0x4dd8…5972 | March 31 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,376 | −$34 −2.5% | — |
| 237d |  mr.ozi2 fills | February 28 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $25,626 | −$224 −0.9% | — |
| 237d | Car | March 31 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,327 | −$12 −0.9% | — |
| 237d |  BloodyMummer | February 28 | SellNo100¢ | $1,419 | −$7 −0.5% | — |
| 237d |  ParaNormal | February 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,220 | +$20 +0.9% | 4 |
| 237d |  DonaldinhoTrumpito | February 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,944 | +$91 +1.0% | 4 |
| 237d | delphy | February 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,048 | +$21 +1.0% | 4 |
| 237d |  TealV | February 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,529 | +$29 +0.8% | 4 |
| 237d | mr.ozi7 fills | February 28 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $63,616 | +$3,354 +5.3% | 4 |
| 237d | 0x4e25…d7a7 | February 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,484 | +$30 +1.2% | 4 |
| 237d | Serene-Decision2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $18,520 | +$432 +2.3% | 4 |
| 237d | Wtfitst2daj | February 28 | BuyYes2¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 4 |
| 237d |  ScottyNooo2 fills | February 28 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $5,105 | +$158 +3.1% | 4 |
| 237d |  Tenebrus7 | December 31 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,233 | +$143 +6.4% | 4 |
| 237d | thevotwddweller | February 28 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,147 | −$30 −1.4% | — |
| 237d | Huludubu | February 28 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,871 | −$49 −1.3% | — |
| 237d | Serene-Decision3 fills | February 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $14,066 | +$75 +0.5% | 4 |
| 237d | 21172 fills | February 28 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $3,755 | +$79 +2.1% | 4 |
| 237d | Inferior-Data | February 28 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $11,310 | −$522 −4.6% | — |
| 237d | k00pa | February 28 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,228 | +$63 +2.8% | 4 |
| 237d | SILF | February 28 | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,876 | −$183 −6.3% | — |
| 237d | SILF | February 28 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $2,981 | +$252 +8.5% | 4 |
| 237d |  .yumeko | February 28 | SellNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,555 | −$132 −8.5% | — |
| 237d | legday333 | February 28 | BuyYes20¢ → 0¢ | $2,000 | −$2,000 −100% | 8 |
| 237d |  betwick | February 28 | BuyYes5¢ → 0¢ | $1,730 | −$1,730 −100% | 8 |
| 237d | Dit269787 fills | February 28 | SellNo98¢ → 100¢ | $25,196 | −$517 −2.1% | — |
| 237d | SILF2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $5,344 | +$698 +13% | 4 |
| 237d | orch | March 31 | BuyYes13¢ → 0¢ | $1,663 | −$1,663 −100% | 8 |
| 237d |  Mr-Krabs2 fills | March 31 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $2,499 | +$379 +15% | 4 |
| 237d | Serious-Governance | February 28 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,175 | +$29 +1.3% | 4 |
| 237d |  lightmoney | February 28 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,160 | −$18 −1.5% | — |
| 237d | Inferior-Data | February 28 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $11,620 | +$212 +1.8% | 4 |
| 237d | Huludubu2 fills | February 28 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $6,700 | +$182 +2.7% | 4 |
| 237d | forinnerpsandr1x11222 | December 31 | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $9,829 | +$4,213 +43% | 4 |
| 237d |  How.Dare.You2 fills | December 31 | BuyNo66¢ → 100¢ | $4,585 | +$2,311 +50% | 4 |
| 237d |  StingerT2 fills | February 28 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $8,945 | +$277 +3.1% | 4 |
| 237d | Mozauma | December 31 | BuyNo68¢ → 100¢ | $1,400 | +$659 +47% | 4 |
| 237d |  Oompa-Loompa | February 28 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,108 | +$28 +2.5% | 4 |
| 237d |  Chims | December 31 | BuyNo67¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$985 +49% | 4 |
| 237d | Domador | February 28 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,047 | +$22 +2.1% | 4 |
| 237d | thevotwddweller | February 28 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $2,132 | +$45 +2.1% | 4 |
| 237d |  Snow-White | February 28 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,273 | +$70 +3.1% | 4 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Ali Khamenei has left Iran for any length of time by January 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". In cases where Ali Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Ali Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes". If it is not confirmed by the resolution date that Ali Khamenei left Iran, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for January 9 means the market gives it about 0%.