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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | +1 pts | +2 pts | 3¢ · 6¢ (2¢) | $53.7 | in 68d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1d | 57284910 | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BuyNo97¢ → 96¢ | $2,336 | −$47 −2.0% | 22 |
| 145d | gdebablo | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | SellYes6¢ → 5¢ | $1,070 | +$215 +20% | — |
| 166d |  500EUR | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | SellNo93¢ → 96¢ | $1,419 | −$33 −2.3% | — |
| 170d | 0xd269…6b9a | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BuyNo94¢ → 96¢ | $9,950 | +$140 +1.4% | 24 |
| 199d | Loyalty-Crash | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 96¢ | $1,834 | +$112 +6.1% | 27 |
| 200d | Responsible-Leaker | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 96¢ | $10,008 | +$612 +6.1% | 27 |
| 201d | 500EUR | Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | BuyNo90¢ → 96¢ | $4,487 | +$274 +6.1% | 27 |
HoneybeeAlliance41,493 shares
RememberAmalek4,577 shares
LornaPredicts1,157 shares500EUR4,206 shares
elmcap22,095 shares
Car2,000 shares
47513461,630 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if North Korea commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the South Korea by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by South Korea, North Korea, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 5¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 5%.