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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | 0 pts | −9 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 289d | Tooja | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | SellNo>99¢ | $4,295 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 289d | hollow811 | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | SellNo>99¢ | $8,148 | −$15 −0.2% | — |
| 289d | Talkative-Worm | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | SellNo>99¢ | $1,051 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 289d |  Obamnna | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | SellNo>99¢ | $3,200 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 289d |  ggmggn3 fills | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo>99¢ | $41,684 | +$114 +0.3% | 20 |
| 290d | tir1234 | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,736 | +$11 +0.4% | 20 |
| 290d | Gamble.and.bankurpt | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,121 | −$8 −0.7% | — |
| 290d |  HowToBasic2 fills | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $9,000 | +$47 +0.5% | 20 |
| 290d | BTC-WHALE2 fills | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,994 | +$191 +6.4% | 20 |
| 291d |  Atsegine | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,856 | +$17 +0.9% | 20 |
| 291d |  SupremeLeader12 | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,103 | −$91 −4.3% | — |
| 291d | kirik9885 fills | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $9,373 | +$459 +4.9% | 20 |
| 291d |  DaytonaOne3 fills | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $19,601 | +$1,038 +5.3% | 21 |
| 291d | Raptorr | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $1,920 | +$80 +4.2% | 21 |
| 291d |  awaylot | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $4,212 | +$222 +5.3% | 21 |
| 292d | 0xcb14…bd17 | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $2,050 | +$126 +6.2% | 21 |
| 292d | Bakerx | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyYes16¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 28 |
| 292d |  iamkrisas | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $2,575 | +$136 +5.3% | 21 |
| 292d | SupremeLeader12 | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,371 | +$103 +7.5% | 21 |
| 293d | gdkkz | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,720 | −$110 −6.4% | — |
| 293d | Whole-Pork | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,503 | +$97 +6.5% | 21 |
| 294d |  Parz1vaI | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | SellNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,062 | −$68 −6.4% | — |
| 294d | Ronaldo2100 | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $1,450 | +$93 +6.4% | 20 |
| 294d | BryanPunishMK22 | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $3,133 | +$200 +6.4% | 20 |
| 294d | Tooja | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $3,083 | +$163 +5.3% | 20 |
| 294d | Parz1vaI2 fills | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $4,746 | +$351 +7.4% | 20 |
| 295d | hollow8112 fills | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $7,523 | +$640 +8.5% | 20 |
| 296d | forbit | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,285 | +$112 +8.7% | 21 |
| 296d | makeadream3 fills | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $3,310 | +$271 +8.2% | 20 |
| 299d | jiyge | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,996 | +$178 +8.9% | 20 |
| 302d | Probs | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $1,247 | −$139 −11% | — |
| 303d | Probs | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo90¢ → 100¢ | $2,072 | +$230 +11% | 20 |
| 305d | Paglietini | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | SellNo84¢ → 100¢ | $2,057 | −$395 −19% | — |
| 306d | AnonSequitur | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo88¢ → 100¢ | $2,570 | +$365 +14% | 20 |
| 307d |  Dapsy | Will Russia announce a Christmas truce? | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $1,396 | +$209 +15% | 20 |
ALMOST3,000 shares
bone0015 shares
neoscopick1 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the Russian government or military publicly and officially announces a ceasefire or “truce” in its war against Ukraine that is explicitly tied to Christmas or Orthodox Christmas for the 2025–26 holiday period. A qualifying announcement must: The January 2023 unilateral “Orthodox Christmas” ceasefire order is an example of a qualifying announcement. The announcement alone is sufficient: the truce does not need to be accepted by Ukraine or actually upheld in practice, and any later violations, non-compliance, or cancellation will not change the outcome once a qualifying announcement has been made. The primary resolution sources will be official Russian government.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.