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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| December 31 | 100% | +14 pts | −3 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 31 | 100% | +4 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| January 15 | 100% | +8 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 300d | flaT1k | December 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,812 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 300d | yougotme2 fills | January 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $7,567 | +$84 +1.1% | 4 |
| 300d | yougotme | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,381 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 300d |  bamesjond | January 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,638 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 300d | bolla-5773 fills | December 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $6,036 | +$407 +6.7% | 4 |
| 300d |  Naichli2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $14,479 | +$62 +0.4% | 4 |
| 300d | Naichli | January 15 | BuyYes>99¢ | $12,851 | +$22 +0.2% | 4 |
| 300d | Naichli2 fills | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,127 | +$14 +0.2% | 4 |
| 300d |  BigRabbit | January 15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,975 | −$25 −1.3% | — |
| 300d | makeadream | January 15 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | −$11 −1.1% | — |
| 301d |  ggmggn2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,114 | +$44 +0.9% | 4 |
| 301d |  opolon | January 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,469 | +$27 +0.3% | 4 |
| 301d | Scottp18872 fills | December 31 | SellYes50¢ → 100¢ | $2,473 | −$2,479 −100% | — |
| 301d |  tsybka3 fills | January 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $13,252 | +$294 +2.2% | 4 |
| 301d |  KazLC | December 31 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $5,555 | +$175 +3.1% | 4 |
| 301d | sdhyky | December 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,019 | +$84 +4.2% | 4 |
| 301d | arttheking | December 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,333 | +$56 +4.2% | 4 |
| 301d | arttheking | January 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$27 +1.3% | 4 |
| 301d |  IamBatman-2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $4,000 | +$231 +5.8% | 4 |
| 301d |  City17 | December 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$107 +5.4% | 4 |
| 301d | tsybka4 fills | January 15 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $9,026 | +$1,814 +20% | 5 |
| 301d | makeadream | December 31 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$103 +5.3% | 4 |
| 301d |  Self-fulfillingOrders | December 31 | BuyYes82¢ → 100¢ | $2,450 | +$550 +22% | 5 |
| 301d | arttheking | December 31 | SellYes78¢ → 100¢ | $1,942 | −$558 −29% | — |
| 302d | elgogd2 fills | December 31 | SellYes75¢ → 100¢ | $3,458 | −$1,152 −33% | — |
| 302d | 123erty | January 15 | SellYes93¢ → 100¢ | $2,186 | −$169 −7.7% | — |
| 302d | 123erty4 fills | December 31 | SellYes35¢ → 100¢ | $11,001 | −$20,297 −185% | — |
| 302d | Scottp1887 | December 31 | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $1,335 | +$767 +57% | 6 |
| 303d | tsybka2 fills | January 15 | SellYes79¢ → 100¢ | $5,125 | −$1,383 −27% | — |
| 303d | BigRabbit | December 31 | SellYes41¢ → 100¢ | $1,020 | −$1,480 −145% | — |
| 303d |  Neizvestnyy2 fills | December 31 | SellNo63¢ → 0¢ | $3,171 | +$3,171 +100% | — |
| 303d | eastpak | December 31 | BuyNo78¢ → 0¢ | $2,328 | −$2,328 −100% | 5 |
| 303d | Azrarn | December 31 | SellNo76¢ → 0¢ | $2,831 | +$2,831 +100% | — |
| 304d | protopartorg | December 31 | SellNo77¢ → 0¢ | $1,425 | +$1,425 +100% | — |
| 304d | amused85 | January 15 | BuyNo30¢ → 0¢ | $1,246 | −$1,246 −100% | 7 |
| 305d |  MikeYoung | December 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $1,130 | −$1,130 −100% | 4 |
| 305d | BigRabbit | January 31 | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $2,050 | −$450 −22% | — |
| 305d | Scottp1887 | January 31 | SellYes82¢ → 100¢ | $3,206 | −$694 −22% | — |
| 306d | 123erty | January 15 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $1,626 | +$632 +39% | 4 |
| 309d | mr.BTC | December 31 | SellNo76¢ → 0¢ | $1,051 | +$1,051 +100% | — |
| 310d | Serendipity995 | December 31 | SellNo65¢ → 0¢ | $1,047 | +$1,047 +100% | — |
| 311d | sirdenal | December 31 | BuyYes35¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$1,885 +188% | 4 |
| 312d | Llalalala | December 31 | SellNo63¢ → 0¢ | $1,663 | +$1,663 +100% | — |
| 312d |  gopfan2 | January 31 | BuyYes74¢ → 100¢ | $2,108 | +$741 +35% | 4 |
| 312d | viktorurolog16 | December 31 | SellNo74¢ → 0¢ | $1,062 | +$1,062 +100% | — |
| 312d | Scottp1887 | January 31 | BuyYes72¢ → 100¢ | $2,553 | +$970 +38% | 4 |
| 313d | 123erty2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes34¢ → 100¢ | $2,673 | +$5,216 +195% | 7 |
| 313d | BigRabbit2 fills | January 31 | BuyYes68¢ → 100¢ | $4,276 | +$2,053 +48% | 4 |
| 314d | veterano | December 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $1,738 | −$1,738 −100% | 4 |
| 314d | mr.BTC | December 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $1,100 | −$1,100 −100% | 4 |
| 315d | carbid | December 31 | BuyNo71¢ → 0¢ | $1,864 | −$1,864 −100% | 4 |
| 315d | tirik | December 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 0¢ | $2,040 | −$2,040 −100% | 4 |
| 315d | makeadream | December 31 | SellNo75¢ → 0¢ | $1,140 | +$1,140 +100% | — |
| 316d | Koolio | December 31 | BuyYes27¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | +$5,461 +273% | 7 |
| 316d |  starship0903 | December 31 | SellNo74¢ → 0¢ | $1,443 | +$1,443 +100% | — |
| 319d | amused852 fills | December 31 | SellNo68¢ → 0¢ | $3,360 | +$3,360 +100% | — |
| 319d | veterano | December 31 | SellNo88¢ → 0¢ | $1,233 | +$1,233 +100% | — |
| 319d |  valimair | December 31 | BuyNo88¢ → 0¢ | $1,170 | −$1,170 −100% | 4 |
| 319d | Llalalala3 fills | December 31 | BuyNo70¢ → 0¢ | $6,880 | −$6,880 −100% | 4 |
| 319d | Azrarn4 fills | December 31 | BuyNo75¢ → 0¢ | $6,935 | −$6,935 −100% | 4 |
dimi6oni204 shares
Dankwizart4207,284 shares
MikhailR3,635 shares
MagicEightBall1,445 sharesThis market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection between T-04-01 and Heroiv Ukrainy Vulytsia located in Huliaipole by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. The intersection station will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”. If Russia comes into control of this territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. An announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. Once Russia captures the intersection, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Intersection Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/1-25de2807b3.png Intersection Location in Huliaipole: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/2-4fb07c1a3f.png Huliaipole Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/3-fb49118886.png Location on Google Maps: https://maps.app.goo.gl/tQZEoimrxmfJb2MK6 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for December 31 means the market gives it about 100%.