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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 100% | +73 pts | +82 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31 | 100% | +11 pts | +22 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| November 30 | 100% | +25 pts | +41 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| September 30 | 0% | −1 pts | −6 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 365d | Jumpy-Logistics | October 31 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,135 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 365d | CryptoDoggo | October 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,950 | −$44 −0.9% | — |
| 365d |  duderr2 fills | October 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,195 | +$38 +0.7% | 4 |
| 365d |  JaidenAnimations | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,385 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 365d | JaidenAnimations | October 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,760 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 365d | rwo | November 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $6,933 | +$7 +0.1% | 4 |
| 365d | elgogd | October 31 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,000 | −$19 −0.9% | — |
| 365d | Aimar48 | November 30 | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,616 | −$18 −1.1% | — |
| 365d | duderr4 fills | November 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $12,893 | +$74 +0.6% | 4 |
| 365d | duderr3 fills | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,748 | +$100 +0.9% | 4 |
| 365d | arttheking | October 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,400 | +$24 +1.0% | 4 |
| 365d |  BlackSky123 | October 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,664 | +$17 +1.0% | 4 |
| 365d |  siick | October 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,264 | +$26 +2.0% | 4 |
| 365d | 20251021 | December 31 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,544 | +$65 +4.2% | 4 |
| 365d |  tsybka | December 31 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $2,049 | +$125 +6.1% | 4 |
| 365d | tsybka | November 30 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,592 | +$389 +24% | 4 |
| 365d | tsybka | October 31 | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $5,551 | +$2,708 +49% | 6 |
| 366d | letsfingo | November 30 | SellYes74¢ → 100¢ | $6,355 | −$2,264 −36% | — |
| 366d |  UGLYdomerHAHAHA | December 31 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $2,216 | +$274 +12% | 4 |
| 367d | monster1488 | October 31 | BuyYes64¢ → 100¢ | $1,866 | +$1,055 +57% | 4 |
| 367d | monster1488 | October 31 | SellNo54¢ → 0¢ | $1,866 | +$1,866 +100% | — |
| 367d | monster1488 | October 31 | BuyNo66¢ → 0¢ | $2,275 | −$2,275 −100% | 4 |
| 367d |  RelaySucks | December 31 | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,287 | +$141 +11% | 4 |
| 367d | LuckyWin | October 31 | SellYes40¢ → 100¢ | $1,120 | −$1,681 −150% | — |
| 367d | 123erty | November 30 | BuyYes80¢ → 100¢ | $1,779 | +$445 +25% | 4 |
| 369d |  DumplingBMF | November 30 | SellYes83¢ → 100¢ | $1,113 | −$228 −20% | — |
| 369d | Giving-Mortality | October 31 | SellYes44¢ → 100¢ | $1,146 | −$1,453 −127% | — |
| 369d | rockyxavier | October 31 | BuyYes50¢ → 100¢ | $1,105 | +$1,116 +101% | 4 |
| 369d |  BigRabbit | December 31 | SellYes86¢ → 100¢ | $1,476 | −$236 −16% | — |
| 369d | 123erty | December 31 | SellYes84¢ → 100¢ | $2,063 | −$395 −19% | — |
| 369d | LuckyWin | December 31 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $1,700 | +$300 +18% | 4 |
| 369d | KrackenSruster2 fills | October 31 | SellNo74¢ → 0¢ | $3,285 | +$3,285 +100% | — |
| 369d |  NiceDuckBro | October 31 | SellNo72¢ → 0¢ | $1,008 | +$1,008 +100% | — |
| 369d | KrackenSruster | November 30 | BuyNo27¢ → 0¢ | $1,216 | −$1,216 −100% | 5 |
| 370d |  Napoleon1988 | October 31 | SellNo68¢ → 0¢ | $2,204 | +$2,204 +100% | — |
| 370d | letsfingo2 fills | November 30 | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $2,998 | +$1,108 +37% | 4 |
| 370d | elPolloLoco | December 31 | BuyYes86¢ → 100¢ | $2,150 | +$353 +16% | 4 |
| 371d | rolser | October 31 | BuyYes30¢ → 100¢ | $1,512 | +$3,490 +231% | 6 |
| 371d |  0xMadMax | November 30 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,293 | +$700 +54% | 4 |
| 371d | Legitimate-Wardrobe | October 31 | BuyYes30¢ → 100¢ | $1,009 | +$2,346 +233% | 4 |
| 371d | elPolloLoco | November 30 | BuyYes65¢ → 100¢ | $1,179 | +$638 +54% | 4 |
| 371d | misma | November 30 | BuyNo53¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 4 |
| 372d | BigRabbit | November 30 | BuyYes40¢ → 100¢ | $1,000 | +$1,500 +150% | 4 |
| 373d | Trustworthy-Barrel2 fills | October 31 | BuyNo92¢ → 0¢ | $3,622 | −$3,622 −100% | 4 |
| 374d | AlphaBr | November 30 | BuyYes48¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$1,089 +109% | 4 |
| 374d |  Dapsy | October 31 | BuyNo88¢ → 0¢ | $1,684 | −$1,684 −100% | 4 |
| 375d | shred7777 | October 31 | BuyNo88¢ → 0¢ | $1,496 | −$1,496 −100% | 4 |
| 380d | splitpersonality | October 31 | BuyNo89¢ → 0¢ | $1,200 | −$1,200 −100% | 4 |
| 380d | DoubleKellogs | December 31 | BuyNo48¢ → 0¢ | $3,534 | −$3,534 −100% | 5 |
| 388d | Napoleon1988 | October 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 4 |
| 388d | misma | October 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $1,000 | −$1,000 −100% | 4 |
| 389d | amused85 | September 30 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $3,243 | −$46 −1.4% | — |
| 389d |  U.XO | October 31 | SellNo78¢ → 0¢ | $1,188 | +$1,188 +100% | — |
| 390d | amused853 fills | December 31 | BuyNo44¢ → 0¢ | $6,556 | −$6,556 −100% | 6 |
| 393d | HardlandSus | October 31 | BuyNo73¢ → 0¢ | $1,693 | −$1,693 −100% | 4 |
| 396d | DumplingBMF | December 31 | SellYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,030 | −$730 −71% | — |
| 396d | Napoleon1988 | September 30 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,095 | +$90 +8.3% | 5 |
| 397d | Linusse | September 30 | BuyNo92¢ → 100¢ | $1,083 | +$94 +8.7% | 4 |
| 400d | NiceDuckBro | September 30 | BuyNo93¢ → 100¢ | $1,323 | +$102 +7.7% | 4 |
| 400d | TheManInTheSky | December 31 | SellYes61¢ → 100¢ | $1,038 | −$662 −64% | — |
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures St. Michael's church in Pokrovsk located on Hrushevskoho Vulytsia by the listed date. The church will be considered captured if any part of building is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. If the area is not shaded red by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures the church, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. Church Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovsk+Church+Location.png Pokrovsk Location: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Pokrovosk+Location.png Location on Google maps: https://www.google.com/maps/@48.2794472,37.1801207,592m/data=!3m1!1e3 The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map which will not be considered.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for October 31 means the market gives it about 100%.