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Polymarket · PoliticsClosed
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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | −21 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 241d |  bamesjond | Will Trump drink water during the State of the Union? | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,126 | +$1 +0.1% | 4 |
| 242d |  ArmageddonRewardsBilly | Will Trump drink water during the State of the Union? | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $1,988 | +$562 +28% | 4 |
Sbezhat995 sharesThe 2026 State of the Union address is scheduled to take place on February 24, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump drinks from a water bottle, cup, or other vessel ostensibly containing water. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Drinks from containers such as cans with brand labelling indicating non-water contents will not qualify. Any sip take from when Trump reaches the podium to when he finishes speaking will count. Sips taken after the completion of the speech will not qualify. If the address is cancelled or otherwise does not occur by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on video footage of the events, or a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 0%.