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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| June 21 | 0% | 0 pts | −93 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| June 4 | 100% | +4 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 16 | 100% | — | +6 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 7 | 0% | −90 pts | — | 1¢ · 13¢ (12¢) | — | ended |
| June 6 | 100% | +3 pts | — | >99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 12 | 100% | +5 pts | +4 pts | 95¢ · 100¢ (4¢) | — | ended |
| June 3 | 100% | +4 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 5 | 100% | +6 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 9 | 100% | +10 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · >99¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 8 | 100% | +5 pts | +22 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 2 | 100% | — | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 11 | 100% | +8 pts | +6 pts | 99¢ · >99¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| June 10 | 100% | +7 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 13 | 100% | +6 pts | +3 pts | 96¢ · 98¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| June 14 | 100% | +8 pts | +6 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 23 | 100% | +5 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 24 | 100% | +7 pts | +6 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 22 | 100% | +7 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 26 | 100% | +13 pts | +5 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 27 | 100% | +9 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 18 | 100% | +10 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 29 | 100% | +8 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 17 | 100% | +4 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 25 | 100% | +9 pts | +6 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 28 | 100% | +13 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 30 | 0% | −92 pts | −91 pts | <1¢ · 2¢ (2¢) | — | ended |
| June 15 | 100% | +7 pts | +8 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| June 20 | 100% | +5 pts | +7 pts | 99¢ · 100¢ (1¢) | — | ended |
| June 19 | 100% | +4 pts | +7 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 114d | Sarcastic-Minimalism | June 30 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,587 | +$40 +2.5% | 4 |
| 116d | anon.1980.1232 fills | June 30 | BuyYes96¢ → 0¢ | $2,599 | −$2,599 −100% | 5 |
| 116d |  meagainsttheworld | June 29 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,000 | +$57 +1.1% | 4 |
| 117d | anon.1980.1232 fills | June 29 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,451 | +$94 +3.8% | 5 |
| 118d | meagainsttheworld | June 28 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,204 | +$76 +2.4% | 4 |
| 118d | meagainsttheworld2 fills | June 27 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,678 | +$27 +0.3% | 4 |
| 119d | meagainsttheworld | June 26 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,428 | +$14 +1.0% | 4 |
| 119d |  BossuSmekeru | June 26 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,928 | +$72 +2.5% | 4 |
| 120d | Sarcastic-Minimalism | June 25 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,203 | +$12 +1.0% | 4 |
| 120d |  PeterParker3Hive | June 25 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,129 | +$12 +1.0% | 4 |
| 120d | HornyBibi | June 25 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,013 | +$21 +2.1% | 4 |
| 120d |  Gleaming-Pear | June 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 120d | doQysuW7L9-U6xMX8Qgv | June 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $49,950 | −$50 −0.1% | — |
| 121d |  yen4u2 fills | June 21 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,000 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 121d | thanksmom | June 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $13,916 | +$14 +0.1% | 4 |
| 121d | Gleaming-Pear3 fills | June 21 | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,704 | +$41 +0.4% | 4 |
| 121d | Reasonable-Tabby3 fills | June 21 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $25,233 | +$144 +0.6% | 4 |
| 121d | BossuSmekeru | June 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,995 | +$5 +0.1% | 4 |
| 121d | Gleaming-Pear | June 24 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,085 | +$4 +0.1% | 4 |
| 121d | meagainsttheworld | June 24 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,271 | +$16 +1.2% | 4 |
| 121d | Reasonable-Tabby | June 21 | SellNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,285 | −$93 −4.1% | — |
| 121d |  aenews25 fills | June 21 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $11,000 | +$1,688 +15% | 5 |
| 121d | Sarcastic-Minimalism | June 21 | BuyNo70¢ → 100¢ | $3,795 | +$1,620 +43% | 6 |
| 121d | ATaleOf2Outcomes3 fills | June 21 | BuyNo80¢ → 100¢ | $5,689 | +$1,457 +26% | 5 |
| 122d | Trustinghorse | June 23 | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,807 | +$12 +0.1% | 4 |
| 122d |  CosmicCedar | June 23 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,259 | +$28 +1.2% | 4 |
| 122d | jklsjdwoqejasdf2 fills | June 21 | BuyNo78¢ → 100¢ | $2,489 | +$697 +28% | 4 |
| 122d |  Arbguy | June 21 | BuyYes40¢ → 0¢ | $1,090 | −$1,090 −100% | 4 |
| 122d |  Seutervoinen | June 21 | SellNo71¢ → 100¢ | $1,324 | −$546 −41% | — |
| 123d | 0xdamocles | June 21 | SellNo76¢ → 100¢ | $1,143 | −$357 −31% | — |
| 123d | Seutervoinen | June 21 | BuyNo95¢ → 100¢ | $1,325 | +$75 +5.7% | 4 |
| 123d | Reasonable-Tabby2 fills | June 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,449 | +$26 +0.6% | 4 |
| 123d |  smellyEllie | June 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,933 | +$25 +1.3% | 4 |
| 123d |  Hakei. | June 22 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,382 | +$62 +1.4% | 4 |
| 123d | meagainsttheworld | June 22 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$81 +3.2% | 4 |
| 124d | sportpro1 | June 21 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,200 | +$25 +2.1% | 4 |
| 124d | yen4u | June 21 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,130 | +$17 +1.5% | 4 |
| 125d | Hakei. | June 20 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,172 | +$12 +1.0% | 4 |
| 125d | meagainsttheworld | June 20 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$97 +3.9% | 4 |
| 126d | meagainsttheworld | June 19 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,709 | +$29 +1.7% | 4 |
| 127d | anon.1980.123 | June 20 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,014 | +$33 +3.2% | 4 |
| 127d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | June 16 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,477 | +$3 +0.1% | 4 |
| 127d | anon.1980.123 | June 19 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,395 | +$61 +4.4% | 4 |
| 127d |  HorribleWork | June 16 | BuyYes>99¢ | $16,028 | +$23 +0.1% | 4 |
| 128d | CosmicCedar | June 18 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,148 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 128d |  ProfitMuhammedPBUH | June 18 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,490 | +$19 +0.7% | 4 |
| 128d |  peterfromfamilyguy | June 18 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,501 | +$42 +1.2% | 4 |
| 128d |  Raskell2 fills | June 16 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,291 | +$66 +1.5% | 4 |
| 128d | anon.1980.123 | June 18 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,837 | +$72 +3.9% | 4 |
| 128d | CosmicCedar2 fills | June 16 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $3,100 | +$129 +4.2% | 4 |
| 128d |  49023809234904 | June 16 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $1,199 | +$51 +4.2% | 4 |
| 129d | CosmicCedar | June 17 | BuyYes>99¢ | $4,635 | +$6 +0.1% | 4 |
| 129d | meagainsttheworld | June 17 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$79 +3.1% | 4 |
| 129d |  Rex4162 fills | June 16 | BuyYes95¢ → 100¢ | $2,530 | +$140 +5.5% | 4 |
| 130d | meagainsttheworld | June 15 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,646 | +$22 +1.3% | 4 |
| 132d | yen4u | June 14 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,060 | +$2 +0.1% | 4 |
| 132d | anon.1980.123 | June 15 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,343 | +$84 +3.6% | 4 |
| 132d |  OraculumNobius | June 13 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,235 | +$3 +0.2% | 4 |
| 132d | eastpak | June 13 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,960 | +$22 +1.1% | 4 |
| 132d | meagainsttheworld | June 14 | BuyYes96¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$100 +4.0% | 4 |
yesworld28429,622 shares
Cactus3375,270 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks any non-fictional individual personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner on the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This includes calling the individual weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “He/She isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to the individual's professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “He/She isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count. A direct reference will qualify even if the individual is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that they are the subject. Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 0¢ for June 21 means the market gives it about 0%.