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| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 3 | 91¢ → 97¢ | $3 | +$0 +6.5% |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 2 | 84¢ → 82¢ | $2 | −$0 −3.0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on September 1?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1 | 71¢ → 100¢ | $1 | +$0 +41% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 4 | 50¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 5,000 | <1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$5 −100% |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 3 | 69¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 5 | 42¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$2 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 53d | Will Bitcoin dip to $77,000 on September 1? | BuyYes71¢ | $1 |
| 53d | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ | $2 |
| 88d | US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31? | BuyNo<1¢ | $5 |
| 98d | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | BuyNo50¢ | $2 |
| 98d | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BuyNo69¢ | $2 |
| 98d | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24? | BuyNo87¢ | $2 |
| 98d | Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | BuyNo91¢ | $3 |
| 110d | Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting? | BuyYes42¢ | $2 |
| 110d | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | BuyNo98¢ | $2 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 2 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.