Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 17% | — | +1 pts | 16¢ · 17¢ (1¢) | $52.6K | in 70d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5h |  retrogeci.w | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 84¢ | $1,519 | −$9 −0.6% | — |
| 8h | controls | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 84¢ | $2,490 | −$15 −0.6% | — |
| 15h | pykue2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ | $3,158 | −$37 −1.2% | 22 |
| 19h |  HoldenBloodfeast2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 84¢ | $3,400 | −$60 −1.8% | 23 |
| 20h | kenzok2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes16¢ → 17¢ | $4,800 | −$150 −3.1% | — |
| 22h |  Specksalam | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 84¢ | $8,300 | −$50 −0.6% | — |
| 23h |  GollumGekko2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 84¢ | $5,450 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 1d |  Vespuccii | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo84¢ | $16,800 | +$100 +0.6% | — |
| 1d | pravii-bereg2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 84¢ | $4,923 | −$44 −0.9% | — |
| 1d |  seal7 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 84¢ | $10,200 | −$180 −1.8% | 28 |
| 1d | GOLADS963 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ | $49,757 | −$584 −1.2% | 30 |
| 1d | Starry-Flanker | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 84¢ | $1,245 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 1d |  GammaSqueeze1234 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 84¢ | $1,660 | −$10 −0.6% | — |
| 1d | geekoflemon2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyYes17¢ | $4,051 | −$102 −2.5% | 35 |
| 1d | 0xff1e352d5310eab17d1e9fd7e00ec33f16c05e2 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 84¢ | $20,005 | −$121 −0.6% | — |
| 1d |  Tenebrus712 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo85¢ → 84¢ | $26,259 | +$394 +1.5% | — |
| 1d |  Car2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes15¢ → 17¢ | $4,567 | −$349 −7.6% | — |
| 1d | Car2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyYes15¢ → 17¢ | $7,987 | +$868 +11% | 46 |
| 1d |  AlexiosV2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo85¢ → 84¢ | $13,974 | +$212 +1.5% | — |
| 2d | GOLADS962 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo85¢ → 84¢ | $6,328 | +$112 +1.8% | — |
| 2d |  meagainsttheworld5 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyYes15¢ → 17¢ | $9,127 | +$938 +10% | 49 |
| 3d | xm39 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes15¢ → 17¢ | $12,389 | −$1,239 −10% | — |
| 3d | WarriorH7 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 84¢ | $22,903 | −$636 −2.8% | 29 |
| 3d | lion449 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo84¢ | $5,385 | +$32 +0.6% | — |
| 3d | Skinny-Class | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes15¢ → 17¢ | $1,050 | −$105 −10% | — |
| 4d | mm4ker | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo84¢ | $5,768 | +$34 +0.6% | — |
| 4d |  Hugewinner | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes15¢ → 17¢ | $4,463 | −$446 −10% | — |
| 4d | 9792E6bDf9Ff005d9e8bff608E8EF832864cBc5A | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 84¢ | $4,942 | −$87 −1.8% | 24 |
| 4d |  AllByMyseIf | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo85¢ → 84¢ | $8,470 | +$149 +1.8% | — |
| 5d | PB2.KALInn | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo85¢ → 84¢ | $1,160 | +$20 +1.8% | — |
| 5d | m00n2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo86¢ → 84¢ | $12,387 | −$297 −2.4% | 29 |
| 5d | Stable-Armament | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo84¢ | $22,660 | +$170 +0.8% | — |
| 5d | laureman4 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 84¢ | $18,754 | −$228 −1.2% | 30 |
| 5d | aff3 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 84¢ | $19,984 | −$353 −1.8% | 30 |
| 5d | Real-Advertisement | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo84¢ | $1,680 | +$10 +0.6% | — |
| 5d | SaylorMoon | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo84¢ | $45,684 | +$272 +0.6% | — |
| 6d | Stark-University-ResumeNew account | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 84¢ | $1,427 | −$25 −1.8% | 29 |
| 6d |  rewardbots2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes16¢ → 17¢ | $2,661 | −$156 −5.9% | — |
| 6d | rewardbots2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyYes17¢ | $2,833 | −$15 −0.5% | 31 |
| 6d | meagainsttheworld5 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes16¢ → 17¢ | $22,877 | −$1,275 −5.6% | — |
| 6d | LulaVaiPerder45 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 84¢ | $310,359 | −$968 −0.3% | — |
| 6d |  classified3 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo85¢ → 84¢ | $10,563 | +$140 +1.3% | — |
| 7d | laureman5 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 84¢ | $49,205 | −$471 −1.0% | — |
| 7d | Zbinik3 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo84¢ | $31,711 | +$233 +0.7% | — |
| 7d | hughjonesd | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ | $14,000 | −$102 −0.7% | 31 |
| 7d | classified3 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ | $8,168 | −$68 −0.8% | 27 |
| 7d |  0x34a9...d74cfd | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ | $1,512 | −$9 −0.6% | 21 |
| 7d | Popeyesfriedchicken | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 84¢ | $1,355 | −$8 −0.6% | — |
| 7d |  yen4u2 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ | $7,889 | −$3 −0.0% | 27 |
| 7d |  0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo84¢ | $6,122 | +$36 +0.6% | — |
| 7d |  LlamaLoco00002 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes16¢ → 17¢ | $15,417 | −$968 −6.3% | — |
| 7d | controls | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ | $5,000 | −$30 −0.6% | 24 |
| 7d | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e05 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ | $21,000 | −$125 −0.6% | 31 |
| 7d | 0xa7517ed74c6b07843946e0e69cad10a9fa94e053 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellYes15¢ → 17¢ | $11,594 | −$1,010 −8.7% | — |
| 7d | Car5 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo85¢ → 84¢ | $67,468 | −$924 −1.4% | 30 |
| 8d | hehhehe | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 84¢ | $2,929 | −$18 −0.6% | — |
| 8d |  Dapsy | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo84¢ | $3,000 | −$18 −0.6% | 22 |
| 8d |  paddaa | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 84¢ | $6,142 | −$37 −0.6% | — |
| 9d | ethBELIVER3 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BuyNo83¢ → 84¢ | $51,539 | +$310 +0.6% | 31 |
| 9d |  Valen93 fills | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | SellNo83¢ → 84¢ | $45,132 | −$374 −0.8% | — |
TheQuietRisk1,056,379 sharesmeagainsttheworld234,555 sharesLlamaLoco0000200,000 shares
scout280,000 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 17¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 17%.