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| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 6 | 84¢ → 100¢ | $6 | +$1 +19% |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 5 | 93¢ → 98¢ | $5 | +$0 +4.8% |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 5 | 96¢ → 98¢ | $5 | +$0 +1.4% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 5 | 82¢ → 100¢ | $5 | +$1 +22% |
| New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 3 | 94¢ → 98¢ | $3 | +$0 +4.1% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 2 | >99¢ → 100¢ | $2 | +$0 +0.2% |
| Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 2 | 96¢ → 99¢ | $2 | +$0 +2.4% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | Yes | 9 | 22¢ → 6¢ | $1 | −$1 −75% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 38d | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? | BuyYes22¢ | $2 |
| 51d | Ebola pandemic in 2026? | BuyNo96¢ | $5 |
| 167d | Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | BuyNo93¢ | $5 |
| 169d | New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? | BuyNo94¢ | $3 |
| 170d | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SellNo98¢ | $2 |
| 176d | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? | BuyNo84¢ | $5 |
| 178d | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BuyNo82¢ | $4 |
| 179d | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BuyNo96¢ | $3 |
| 181d | Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? | BuyNo>99¢ | $2 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.