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Polymarket wallet 0x3bc847bb14ca5a3a18c3e7ba493e07d1864f423c · on Polymarket since Apr 8, 2026 · also shown as Bony-Apprehension
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 169 | 90¢ → 95¢ | $159 | +$8 +5.4% |
| Von der Leyen out as European Commission President in 2026?Ends in 68d | No | 116 | 86¢ → 96¢ | $112 | +$12 +12% |
| Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 106 | 94¢ → 98¢ | $105 | +$5 +4.5% |
| EU dissolves before 2027?Ends in 68d | No | 104 | 96¢ → 98¢ | $102 | +$2 +2.2% |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?Ends in 67d | No | 115 | 87¢ → 89¢ | $102 | +$2 +1.7% |
| Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 26 | 97¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 38 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.