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Polymarket wallet 0x40278938d317461d13bb8d924e1bb913fb823315 · on Polymarket since Feb 1, 2025 · also shown as Fitting-Episode
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 86 | 8¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$7 −100% |
| Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 386 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$90 −100% |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany in 2025?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 1,520 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 359d | Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany in 2025? | BuyYes7¢ | $100 |
| 616d | Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by Saturday? | BuyYes8¢ | $7 |
| 623d | Will the AfD win 25-30% of the vote in the German election? | BuyYes23¢ | $90 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.