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| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 36 | 55¢ → 100¢ | $36 | +$16 +82% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31?Settled - ready to redeem | No | 30 | 83¢ → 100¢ | $30 | +$5 +20% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 177 | 42¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$74 −100% |
| US forces enter Iran by March 14?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 52 | 19¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$10 −100% |
| When | Market | Bet | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| 224d | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BuyYes37¢ | $34 |
| 229d | US forces enter Iran by March 14? | BuyYes19¢ | $10 |
| 229d | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BuyYes47¢ | $40 |
| 231d | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | SellYes97¢ | $73 |
| 233d | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BuyNo61¢ | $10 |
| 235d | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BuyYes63¢ | $20 |
| 235d | US x Iran ceasefire by March 31? | BuyNo50¢ | $10 |
| 238d | US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? | BuyNo83¢ | $25 |
| 238d | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? | BuyYes33¢ | $15 |
| 238d | US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | BuyYes56¢ | $4 |
| 238d | US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? | BuyYes56¢ | $4 |
| 239d | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes53¢ | $3 |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 3 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.