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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 100% | — | +2 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 238d | AZwater2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,677 | +$29 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | AMo | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,763 | −$4 −0.2% | — |
| 238d |  Robbb | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,395 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | worldcupno1 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,000 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 238d | cobaltwhisper23 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,120 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | westminster2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes68¢ → 100¢ | $17,540 | −$8,367 −48% | — |
| 238d | Polite-Latency | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes>99¢ | $1,261 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 238d | iwantasianwomen | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes>99¢ | $6,890 | −$11 −0.2% | — |
| 238d |  PaddyAlpha | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,498 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d |  The-Joker | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes>99¢ | $2,994 | −$6 −0.2% | — |
| 238d | Nifteguy2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,000 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | Trustinghorse | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes>99¢ | $6,455 | −$13 −0.2% | — |
| 238d | Skinny-Class7 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes65¢ → 100¢ | $13,162 | −$7,238 −55% | — |
| 238d | arttheking | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,458 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 238d | Zathaziel | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $2,277 | −$16 −0.7% | — |
| 238d | worldcupno1 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,479 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 238d | ChrisMoltisanti | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes>99¢ | $3,641 | −$17 −0.5% | — |
| 238d | ETH002 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,369 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 238d |  khai13 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,603 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 238d | bababaaaaba | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,768 | −$28 −1.6% | — |
| 238d | Soupy-Stench | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $5,921 | −$46 −0.8% | — |
| 238d | okcoolstorybro2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,662 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | Tart-Interject | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,946 | −$17 −0.9% | — |
| 238d | miamimimi | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes100¢ | $1,950 | +$10 +0.5% | 20 |
| 238d | ebzs10425 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,543 | −$27 −1.8% | — |
| 238d |  dashagroyper | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,242 | −$23 −1.8% | — |
| 238d | plzdontdropout | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $15,300 | +$155 +1.0% | 20 |
| 238d |  95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,960 | +$40 +1.0% | 20 |
| 238d | Trustinghorse | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $6,403 | +$65 +1.0% | 20 |
| 238d |  1sk | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $2,531 | +$78 +3.1% | 20 |
| 238d | The-Joker | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $3,153 | +$98 +3.1% | 20 |
| 238d | westminster5 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes62¢ → 100¢ | $15,338 | +$9,344 +61% | 20 |
| 238d | Bink_7 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes90¢ → 100¢ | $3,292 | +$366 +11% | 20 |
| 238d |  kramer19752 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes45¢ → 100¢ | $3,100 | +$3,811 +123% | 21 |
| 238d |  WashTrade3 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes44¢ → 100¢ | $5,756 | +$7,411 +129% | 22 |
| 238d |  MEPP | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,605 | +$695 +43% | 20 |
| 238d | Vidshore | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $2,802 | +$1,383 +49% | 20 |
| 238d |  balmerre | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes61¢ → 100¢ | $2,342 | −$1,481 −63% | — |
| 238d |  KnureKnume4 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes48¢ → 100¢ | $8,452 | +$9,004 +107% | 21 |
| 238d | Wooden-Hesitation | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $1,003 | +$669 +67% | 20 |
| 238d | Leviathan18323 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes53¢ → 100¢ | $6,078 | −$5,498 −90% | — |
| 238d | Chaggail | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $3,226 | +$1,612 +50% | 20 |
| 238d |  Casdifer2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellNo44¢ → 0¢ | $5,962 | +$5,962 +100% | — |
| 238d |  degensruletheworld | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes56¢ → 100¢ | $1,099 | −$863 −79% | — |
| 238d | degensruletheworld | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes56¢ → 100¢ | $4,554 | +$3,578 +79% | 20 |
| 238d |  de5nuts4 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes52¢ → 100¢ | $12,922 | +$12,098 +94% | 20 |
| 238d | alliswell15 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes53¢ → 100¢ | $54,534 | +$49,205 +90% | 20 |
| 238d | Paglietini | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellNo49¢ → 0¢ | $1,156 | +$1,156 +100% | — |
| 238d | Better-DeadNew account | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes54¢ → 100¢ | $5,760 | +$4,947 +86% | 32 |
| 239d | Tart-Interject | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes51¢ → 100¢ | $1,001 | +$962 +96% | 20 |
| 239d | Achrimus1013 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes54¢ → 100¢ | $9,339 | +$7,931 +85% | 20 |
| 239d | New-Anarchy3 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes42¢ → 100¢ | $5,836 | −$7,905 −135% | — |
| 239d | kramer1975 | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes50¢ → 100¢ | $2,688 | −$2,742 −102% | — |
| 240d | tinyyyy | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes35¢ → 100¢ | $1,403 | −$2,606 −186% | — |
| 240d | maybeeeee | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes38¢ → 100¢ | $1,119 | −$1,826 −163% | — |
| 240d | greatmm | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes50¢ → 100¢ | $1,573 | −$1,573 −100% | — |
| 240d | Casdifer | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyNo48¢ → 0¢ | $47,630 | −$47,630 −100% | 21 |
| 240d | KnureKnume2 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes52¢ → 100¢ | $2,600 | −$2,400 −92% | — |
| 240d | Leviathan18323 fills | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | BuyYes54¢ → 100¢ | $5,169 | +$4,470 +86% | 20 |
| 240d | upp | Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SellYes52¢ → 100¢ | $2,612 | −$2,411 −92% | — |
ImJustKen24,119 shares
WongKimArk9,314 shares
PEYZ-BIGGEST-FAN7,000 shares
ALMOST5,197 shares
FridayNight2,500 sharesThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike on Iranian soil or any official Iranian embassy or consulate by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact Iranian ground territory or any official Iranian embassy or consulate (e.g., if a weapons depot on Iranian soil is hit by an Israeli missile, this market will resolve to "Yes"). Missiles or drones which are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not be sufficient for a "Yes" resolution regardless of whether they land on Iranian territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Yes means the market gives it about 100%.