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Polymarket wallet 0xae4fa864547f1304ce338f8e0db74a8dc1b9aaf2 · on Polymarket since Jan 4, 2026 · also shown as Untidy-Mantel
| Market | Holding | Paid → now | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 289 | 23¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$65 −100% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 357 | 28¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$100 −100% |
| Will Khamenei leave Iran by March 31?Settled - ready to redeem | Yes | 244 | 26¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$63 −100% |
| Rockets vs. Trail BlazersSettled - ready to redeem | Rockets | 2,000 | 1¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$20 −100% |
| Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Settled - ready to redeem | Avalanche | 183 | 33¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$60 −100% |
| Solana Up or Down - January 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Up | 310 | 31¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$95 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 357 | 7¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$25 −100% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ETSettled - ready to redeem | Down | 272 | 5¢ → 0¢ | $0 | −$13 −100% |
Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 5 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.