bernarmadov

Polymarket wallet 0xb4545b686967d17b93467c4a76dfa616292c9b90 · on Polymarket since Apr 18, 2026 · also shown as Far-Flung-Dagger

Open on Polymarket ↗@bernarmadov ↗

Positions now worth: $1.38K
All-time profit: −$141
Volume traded: $396K
All-time rank: #2,732,066
Markets traded: 516
Recent hit rate: 84%42 of last 50 closed

Open positions

86 markets · $1.38K

Market	Holding		Paid → now
US imports Russian diesel by November 30?Ends in 38d	Yes	679	74¢ → 81¢	$547	+$47 +9.3%
US imports Russian diesel by October 31?Ends in 8d	No	318	94¢ → 97¢	$309	+$9 +2.9%
France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?Ends in 38d	No	349	86¢ → 86¢	$298	−$2 −0.6%
Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?Ends in 8d	Yes	240	83¢ → 93¢	$222	+$22 +11%
Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?Ends in 8d	No	239	42¢ → <1¢	$0	−$100 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 6:55AM-7:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	8	31¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	6	21¢ → 0¢	$0	−$1 −100%
Solana Up or Down - October 13, 12:50PM-12:55PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	32	66¢ → 0¢	$0	−$21 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 11:55AM-12:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	184	14¢ → 0¢	$0	−$26 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	23	56¢ → 0¢	$0	−$13 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 9:30AM-9:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	235	82¢ → 0¢	$0	−$193 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 19?Settled - ready to redeem	No	17	59¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 9:30AM-9:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	11	91¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	104	13¢ → 0¢	$0	−$14 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	5	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$3 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 4:55PM-5:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	49	97¢ → 0¢	$0	−$48 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:40PM-12:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	125	11¢ → 0¢	$0	−$14 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 8:15AM-8:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	29	89¢ → 0¢	$0	−$26 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	17	58¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	43	24¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	11	95¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	16	34¢ → 0¢	$0	−$6 −100%
Solana Up or Down - October 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	5	59¢ → 0¢	$0	−$3 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	11	93¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	40	10¢ → 0¢	$0	−$4 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 12:45PM-1:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	78	29¢ → 0¢	$0	−$23 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	9	24¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	178	31¢ → 0¢	$0	−$55 −100%
Solana Up or Down - October 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	119	53¢ → 0¢	$0	−$64 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	58	6¢ → 0¢	$0	−$3 −100%
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 33m?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	133	12¢ → 0¢	$0	−$16 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 6:55AM-7:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	132	10¢ → 0¢	$0	−$13 −100%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card)Settled - ready to redeem	Khamzat Chimaev	1	82¢ → 0¢	$0	−$1 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 5:55PM-6:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	22	34¢ → 0¢	$0	−$7 −100%
Solana Up or Down - October 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	73	57¢ → 0¢	$0	−$42 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 4:55PM-5:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	5	28¢ → 0¢	$0	−$1 −100%
Solana Up or Down - October 10, 1:30PM-1:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	11	94¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 4:40PM-4:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	82	26¢ → 0¢	$0	−$21 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	82	26¢ → 0¢	$0	−$21 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	25	28¢ → 0¢	$0	−$7 −100%
Antofagasta: Genaro Alberto Olivieri vs Valerio AboianSettled - ready to redeem	Valerio Aboian	125	40¢ → 0¢	$0	−$50 −100%
Will "Other Mommy" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 33m?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	1,116	36¢ → 0¢	$0	−$405 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 9:30PM-9:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	11	91¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,500 October 5-11?Settled - ready to redeem	No	157	92¢ → 0¢	$0	−$144 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 10:55AM-11:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	38	34¢ → 0¢	$0	−$13 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	22	16¢ → 0¢	$0	−$4 −100%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?Settled - ready to redeem	No	6,250	98¢ → 0¢	$0	−$6,150 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 10:40PM-10:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	60	26¢ → 0¢	$0	−$16 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 11:25PM-11:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	46	9¢ → 0¢	$0	−$4 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 10:10PM-10:15PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	55	45¢ → 0¢	$0	−$25 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 8:55AM-9:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	165	15¢ → 0¢	$0	−$25 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 15, 11:55PM-12:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	19	54¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	35	26¢ → 0¢	$0	−$9 −100%
Ethereum Up or Down - October 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	11	92¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Solana Up or Down - October 10, 4:45PM-5:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	11	91¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	174	16¢ → 0¢	$0	−$28 −100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs JD Gaming (BO1) - Demacia Cup Global Invitational Group StageSettled - ready to redeem	JD Gaming	460	43¢ → 0¢	$0	−$200 −100%
Will "Heart of the Beast" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 13m?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	75	67¢ → 0¢	$0	−$50 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	35	50¢ → 0¢	$0	−$17 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	46	8¢ → 0¢	$0	−$4 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	35	43¢ → 0¢	$0	−$15 −100%
Solana Up or Down - October 13, 4:55AM-5:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	17	60¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	48	5¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	32	40¢ → 0¢	$0	−$13 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 9:15PM-9:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	15	87¢ → 0¢	$0	−$13 −100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 19?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	125	8¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 7:55AM-8:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	8	26¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 6:25PM-6:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	190	14¢ → 0¢	$0	−$27 −100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	34	29¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Solana Up or Down - October 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	10	60¢ → 0¢	$0	−$6 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 5:10PM-5:15PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	41	35¢ → 0¢	$0	−$14 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	84	25¢ → 0¢	$0	−$21 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 5:10AM-5:15AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	16	15¢ → 0¢	$0	−$2 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	204	98¢ → 0¢	$0	−$200 −100%
Solana Up or Down - October 14, 4:30AM-4:35AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	33	63¢ → 0¢	$0	−$21 −100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on September 30?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	15	68¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Shanghai Rolex Masters, Qualification: Kyrian Jacquet vs Rei SakamotoSettled - ready to redeem	Kyrian Jacquet	172	58¢ → 0¢	$0	−$100 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	40	26¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Will "Verity" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 25m and 28m?Settled - ready to redeem	Yes	1,286	4¢ → 0¢	$0	−$50 −100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 in October?Settled - ready to redeem	No	51	70¢ → 0¢	$0	−$36 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 2:55AM-3:00AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	80	14¢ → 0¢	$0	−$11 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	11	90¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Solana Up or Down - October 10, 5:00PM-5:15PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	11	91¢ → 0¢	$0	−$10 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 10, 4:15PM-4:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Up	96	98¢ → 0¢	$0	−$94 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 7:40AM-7:45AM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	34	45¢ → 0¢	$0	−$15 −100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ETSettled - ready to redeem	Down	40	27¢ → 0¢	$0	−$11 −100%

Latest trades

last 60

When	Market	Bet	Size
3h	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	SellYes92¢	$200
6h	France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	BuyNo86¢	$100
6h	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	BuyYes81¢	$200
7h	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	SellNo62¢	$168
8h	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	BuyNo65¢	$100
12h	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 24?	BuyYes92¢	$200
14h	France accuses foreign country of provoking unrest by November 30?	BuyNo86¢	$200
15h	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	BuyYes80¢	$100
16h	Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the October Meeting?	BuyYes99¢	$977
16h	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	BuyNo92¢	$100
19h	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	SellNo89¢	$76
1d	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	SellNo99¢	$49
1d	Will Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026?	BuyNo42¢	$100
1d	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	SellNo99¢	$20
1d	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	SellNo99¢	$60
1d	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	SellNo99¢	$391
1d	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	BuyNo85¢	$300
1d	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	BuyNo85¢	$100
1d	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	SellYes96¢	$111
1d	Houthi x Saudi Arabia effective ceasefire by October 31?	SellNo91¢	$154
1d	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	BuyNo96¢	$100
1d	US imports Russian diesel by October 31?	BuyNo96¢	$100
1d	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	BuyYes69¢	$100
1d	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	BuyNo87¢	$150
1d	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	SellNo83¢	$165
1d	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	SellYes74¢	$100
1d	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	SellYes73¢	$101
2d	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	BuyYes72¢	$100
2d	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	SellYes90¢	$114
2d	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	BuyYes77¢	$50
2d	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?	BuyYes81¢	$50
2d	Will Israel election happen as scheduled?	SellYes91¢	$51
2d	Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?	BuyYes74¢	$100
2d	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	BuyNo83¢	$100
2d	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	BuyYes82¢	$43
2d	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	BuyNo81¢	$100
2d	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	BuyNo92¢	$100
2d	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	BuyYes82¢	$7
2d	US imports Russian diesel by November 30?	BuyYes62¢	$100
2d	Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the October Meeting?	BuyNo90¢	$100
3d	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 21?	BuyNo96¢	$100
3d	Paris curfew effectively lifted by October 24?	BuyNo66¢	$50
3d	Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?	SellYes88¢	$99
3d	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	SellNo91¢	$207
3d	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	BuyYes87¢	$101
3d	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	SellYes67¢	$103
3d	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	BuyNo86¢	$100
3d	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	BuyYes68¢	$51
3d	NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?	BuyNo90¢	$100
3d	Will the Bank of Canada increase the target for the overnight rate by 25 bps at the October interest rate announcement?	BuyYes61¢	$51
3d	Will there be no Hormuz agreement?	SellYes91¢	$105
3d	Putin meets with Iranian officials by October 31?	BuyYes84¢	$150
4d	Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	SellYes14¢	$41
4d	Will Rafael Grossi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?	SellYes14¢	$7
4d	Paris curfew by October 21?	SellYes99¢	$110
4d	Paris curfew by October 21?	BuyYes90¢	$100
4d	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	SellYes62¢	$113
4d	US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?	BuyYes55¢	$100
4d	Paris curfew by October 21?	SellYes38¢	$43
4d	Curfew in a major French city by October 24, 2026?	SellYes70¢	$62

Sources: Polymarket's Data API (positions, closed positions, activity, portfolio value and the all-time leaderboard) and its public profiles, read every five minutes. Recent hit rate is the share of the wallet's last 50 closed positions that made money. All-time profit and rank are Polymarket's own.

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