Loading your workspacePreparing the page and its market data.
Loading the chart…
| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| October 31 | 3% | −1 pts | −3 pts | 3¢ · 4¢ (1¢) | $10.2K | in 7d |
| November 30 | 82% | +4 pts | +49 pts | 81¢ · 83¢ (2¢) | $6.68K | in 38d |
| December 31 | 85% | −1 pts | — | 84¢ · 86¢ (2¢) | $3.43K | in 69d |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13h |  Mataty1 | October 31 | SellNo96¢ → 97¢ | $1,155 | −$6 −0.5% | — |
| 1d |  Sylvester.the.Cat2 fills | November 30 | BuyYes73¢ → 82¢ | $3,374 | +$397 +12% | 22 |
| 1d |  theta-thunberg | November 30 | BuyYes81¢ → 82¢ | $1,375 | +$13 +1.0% | 14 |
| 1d |  Tree.news2 fills | November 30 | BuyYes47¢ → 82¢ | $4,262 | +$3,209 +75% | 25 |
| 3d | NeonVector | November 30 | BuyYes65¢ → 82¢ | $1,256 | +$329 +26% | 19 |
| 3d |  mewmew1 | December 31 | BuyYes74¢ → 85¢ | $1,153 | +$173 +15% | 21 |
| 3d | Newshound | October 31 | SellNo93¢ → 97¢ | $3,391 | −$140 −4.1% | — |
| 3d | Newshound | December 31 | BuyYes58¢ → 85¢ | $1,692 | +$767 +45% | 24 |
| 3d | 1nvoker12 fills | December 31 | BuyNo64¢ → 15¢ | $2,954 | −$2,262 −77% | 24 |
| 3d | 1nvoker16 fills | November 30 | BuyNo69¢ → 18¢ | $10,883 | −$8,057 −74% | 24 |
| 3d | 1nvoker13 fills | November 30 | SellNo74¢ → 18¢ | $4,855 | +$3,681 +76% | — |
| 4d | am85cr | November 30 | BuyNo71¢ → 18¢ | $1,065 | −$795 −75% | 16 |
| 6d | Mataty16 fills | October 31 | BuyNo84¢ → 97¢ | $20,201 | +$3,089 +15% | 15 |
| 8d |  iForgor | October 31 | SellNo91¢ → 97¢ | $1,365 | −$86 −6.3% | — |
| 9d |  paddaa2 fills | October 31 | SellNo82¢ → 97¢ | $2,553 | −$455 −18% | — |
| 10d | GOLADS96 | October 31 | BuyNo90¢ → 97¢ | $1,076 | +$76 +7.1% | 7 |
| 10d | Noahrichards98 | October 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 97¢ | $4,000 | +$843 +21% | 17 |
| 10d |  suraxy | October 31 | SellNo77¢ → 97¢ | $1,006 | −$251 −25% | — |
| 11d | Newshound | October 31 | BuyNo77¢ → 97¢ | $2,017 | +$517 +26% | 16 |
| 12d | Nikrider2 fills | October 31 | BuyYes45¢ → 3¢ | $6,065 | −$5,626 −93% | 26 |
| 12d | Petukhovsky | October 31 | BuyNo79¢ → 97¢ | $1,000 | +$231 +23% | 10 |
| 12d | paddaa | October 31 | BuyNo56¢ → 97¢ | $2,000 | +$1,438 +72% | 20 |
| 13d | hfv | October 31 | BuyNo56¢ → 97¢ | $1,267 | +$918 +72% | 14 |
| 13d | Novatan | October 31 | BuyNo55¢ → 97¢ | $1,404 | +$1,068 +76% | 15 |
| 13d | iForgor | October 31 | BuyNo55¢ → 97¢ | $1,375 | +$1,044 +76% | 15 |
| 13d | 0x955c…990f | October 31 | BuyYes61¢ → 3¢ | $1,975 | −$1,869 −95% | 20 |
| 13d | Stonktrader | October 31 | BuyYes60¢ → 3¢ | $1,086 | −$1,027 −95% | 13 |
| 13d |  BigMackyG2 fills | October 31 | BuyNo39¢ → 97¢ | $2,480 | +$3,702 +149% | 25 |
| 13d |  05005 | October 31 | BuyYes66¢ → 3¢ | $1,000 | −$951 −95% | 12 |
| 14d | gilagia | October 31 | SellNo48¢ → 97¢ | $1,144 | −$1,162 −102% | — |
Tree.news8,453 shares
Archeroon5,000 sharesMataty123,443 sharesBigMackyG14,056 shares
💰💰3,780 sharesOn October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 3¢ for October 31 means the market gives it about 3%.