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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerônimo Rodrigues | 100% | +26 pts | +52 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| ACM Neto | 0% | −25 pts | −49 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| João Roma | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| José Carlos Aleluia | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Kleber Rosa | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Rui Costa | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Bruno Soares Reis | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Other | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 1 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 2 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 3 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 4 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 5 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 6 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 7 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 8 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 9 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 10 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 11 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 12 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 13 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 14 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 15 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 16 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 17 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 18 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 19 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| Placeholder 20 | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | 0¢ · 100¢ (100¢) | $0 | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18d | FlyingPlaty | Jerônimo Rodrigues | BuyYes>99¢ | $7,984 | +$16 +0.2% | 10 |
| 18d | galalau | Jerônimo Rodrigues | SellYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,907 | −$17 −0.9% | — |
| 18d | galalau | ACM Neto | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,883 | −$13 −0.7% | — |
| 20d | Lula2026262 fills | Jerônimo Rodrigues | BuyYes67¢ → 100¢ | $4,900 | +$2,428 +50% | 15 |
| 20d | Votei14Voude223 fills | Jerônimo Rodrigues | BuyYes66¢ → 100¢ | $5,253 | +$2,676 +51% | 15 |
| 20d | Jerônimo Rodrigues | BuyYes59¢ → 100¢ | $1,889 | +$1,334 +71% | 15 | |
| 21d | 657657574 fills | Jerônimo Rodrigues | BuyYes60¢ → 100¢ | $7,199 | +$4,896 +68% | 10 |
| 57d | lava-lava | ACM Neto | BuyYes48¢ → 0¢ | $1,041 | −$1,041 −100% | 10 |
| 59d | Fruitful-Expedition-SortNew account | ACM Neto | BuyNo56¢ → 100¢ | $1,433 | +$1,133 +79% | 19 |
| 114d | ACM Neto | BuyYes39¢ → 0¢ | $1,050 | −$1,050 −100% | 10 | |
| 151d | Growing-JawNew account | Jerônimo Rodrigues | BuyYes70¢ → 100¢ | $1,800 | +$769 +43% | 25 |
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for Jerônimo Rodrigues means the market gives it about 100%.