| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | No | 6,712 | 54¢ → 81¢ | $5,403 | +$1,801 +50% |
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?Ends in 437d | No | 3,005 | 77¢ → 91¢ | $2,720 | +$396 +17% |
| Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 2,708 | 66¢ → 82¢ | $2,220 | +$441 +25% |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?Ends ended | Yes | 2,298 | 55¢ → 81¢ | $1,858 | +$595 +47% |
| Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 2,341 | 48¢ → 77¢ | $1,798 | +$684 +61% |
| No one announced as next James Bond?Ends in 72d | Yes | 7,197 | 25¢ → 24¢ | $1,720 | −$72 −4.0% |
| Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Ends in 803d | Yes | 7,463 | 33¢ → 20¢ | $1,455 | −$1,008 −41% |
| Xi Jinping out before 2027?Ends in 72d | No | 1,372 | 65¢ → 97¢ | $1,337 | +$445 +50% |
| Will Ilija Srdanović be the next prime minister of Serbia?Ends in 4d | No | 1,609 | 67¢ → 76¢ | $1,215 | +$139 +13% |
| Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 437d | No | 1,962 | 49¢ → 50¢ | $971 | +$10 +1.0% |
| Will Puma Shen win the next Taipei Mayor election?Ends in 39d | Yes | 2,556 | 29¢ → 37¢ | $939 | +$186 +25% |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027?Ends in 162d | No | 914 | 86¢ → 97¢ | $891 | +$105 +13% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Ends in 72d | Yes | 7,185 | 39¢ → 12¢ | $826 | −$1,942 −70% |
| Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 807 | 94¢ → 97¢ | $779 | +$23 +3.0% |
| Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?Ends in 75d | No | 795 | 32¢ → 93¢ | $736 | +$484 +192% |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 987 | 58¢ → 74¢ | $726 | +$149 +26% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?Ends in 71d | No | 1,147 | 56¢ → 62¢ | $711 | +$63 +9.7% |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by December 31, 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 793 | 57¢ → 90¢ | $710 | +$257 +57% |
| Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 749d | Yes | 7,500 | 2¢ → 9¢ | $664 | +$483 +267% |
| Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 834 | 70¢ → 79¢ | $654 | +$71 +12% |
| Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 749d | No | 652 | 96¢ → 99¢ | $643 | +$15 +2.4% |
| Will Indiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?Ends in 803d | Yes | 2,327 | 14¢ → 28¢ | $640 | +$314 +96% |
| Will Su Chiao-hui win the next New Taipei Mayor election?Ends in 39d | Yes | 1,191 | 21¢ → 49¢ | $578 | +$329 +132% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 22?Ends in 2d | Yes | 590 | 24¢ → 95¢ | $558 | +$419 +301% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 21?Ends in 24h | Yes | 568 | 47¢ → 98¢ | $558 | +$291 +109% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 826 | 52¢ → 65¢ | $533 | +$107 +25% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30?Ends in 40d | Yes | 787 | 59¢ → 61¢ | $476 | +$10 +2.1% |
| Jack Lowden announced as next James Bond?Ends in 72d | No | 611 | 49¢ → 74¢ | $451 | +$152 +51% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the December 2026 meeting?Ends in 49d | Yes | 582 | 57¢ → 78¢ | $451 | +$119 +36% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 103d | No | 715 | 37¢ → 60¢ | $425 | +$161 +61% |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027?Ends in 72d | No | 553 | 70¢ → 76¢ | $417 | +$29 +7.5% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026?Ends in 103d | Yes | 736 | 32¢ → 56¢ | $412 | +$177 +75% |
| Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 468 | 52¢ → 88¢ | $410 | +$165 +68% |
| Will Likud win 20-24 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 7d | No | 667 | 55¢ → 55¢ | $367 | $0 0.0% |
| Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 528d | No | 408 | 76¢ → 86¢ | $351 | +$42 +14% |
| Will "Grand Theft Auto VI Launch Trailer" get between 60 and 80 million views on week 1?Ends in 2d | No | 1,913 | 55¢ → 18¢ | $346 | −$703 −67% |
| Kash Patel out by December 31?Ends in 72d | No | 396 | 37¢ → 80¢ | $315 | +$169 +116% |
| Iran full airspace closure by December 31?Ends in 72d | No | 432 | 68¢ → 71¢ | $304 | +$10 +3.5% |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 180d | No | 528 | 72¢ → 54¢ | $283 | −$98 −26% |
| Will Alberto Núñez Feijóo be the next Prime Minister of Spain?Ends in 528d | Yes | 334 | 85¢ → 83¢ | $275 | −$8 −2.9% |
| Will Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?Ends in 88d | Yes | 391 | 63¢ → 70¢ | $272 | +$25 +10% |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Ends in 10d | No | 1,442 | 31¢ → 19¢ | $267 | −$173 −39% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 349 | 48¢ → 76¢ | $263 | +$94 +56% |
| Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 472 | 57¢ → 53¢ | $248 | −$21 −7.7% |
| Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 1,232 | 19¢ → 20¢ | $240 | +$6 +2.6% |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 480 | 24¢ → 50¢ | $238 | +$120 +102% |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through November 15?Ends in 26d | Yes | 334 | 70¢ → 69¢ | $229 | −$5 −2.1% |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31?Ends in 72d | Yes | 957 | 37¢ → 23¢ | $215 | −$138 −39% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?Ends in 72d | Yes | 1,751 | 55¢ → 12¢ | $210 | −$757 −78% |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31?Ends in 11d | No | 219 | 57¢ → 95¢ | $207 | +$82 +65% |
| Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 180d | Yes | 1,707 | 1¢ → 12¢ | $199 | +$186 +1391% |
| Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 448 | 50¢ → 42¢ | $186 | −$36 −16% |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 180d | Yes | 1,707 | 1¢ → 11¢ | $179 | +$166 +1244% |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027?Ends in 162d | Yes | 294 | 71¢ → 57¢ | $169 | −$38 −19% |
| Will J.D. Vance attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 71d | No | 201 | 76¢ → 84¢ | $168 | +$15 +9.9% |
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?Ends in 7d | No | 230 | 44¢ → 72¢ | $165 | +$64 +62% |
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 5d | No | 1,437 | 15¢ → 12¢ | $165 | −$45 −22% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model on LiveBench (Mathematics) at the end of October 2026?Ends in 10d | Yes | 201 | 63¢ → 82¢ | $165 | +$39 +31% |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?Ends in 749d | Yes | 377 | 44¢ → 44¢ | $165 | −$1 −0.3% |
| Will no next Israeli Minister of Defense be appointed by February 28, 2027?Ends in 131d | Yes | 394 | 36¢ → 39¢ | $153 | +$10 +6.8% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 1,123 | 36¢ → 14¢ | $152 | −$255 −63% |
| Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?Ends in 72d | Yes | 611 | 18¢ → 25¢ | $150 | +$40 +36% |
| Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?Ends in 252d | Yes | 668 | 25¢ → 22¢ | $147 | −$20 −12% |
| Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 180d | Yes | 752 | 1¢ → 19¢ | $139 | +$133 +2268% |
| Will Trump meet with Javier Milei by October 31, 2026?Ends in 11d | No | 136 | 82¢ → 99¢ | $135 | +$23 +21% |
| Andrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 142 | 70¢ → 91¢ | $129 | +$30 +30% |
| Will Andrey Gyurov win the 2026 Bulgarian presidential first round by 20%-30%?Ends in 4d | Yes | 2,018 | 1¢ → 6¢ | $128 | +$110 +602% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Ends in 749d | Yes | 624 | 20¢ → 20¢ | $125 | +$1 +0.8% |
| Saudi-Houthi ceasefire agreement announced by December 31?Ends in 72d | Yes | 403 | 26¢ → 31¢ | $123 | +$20 +20% |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?Ends in 14d | Yes | 544 | 36¢ → 23¢ | $122 | −$71 −37% |
| Will Axel Kicillof win the 2027 Argentina presidential election?Ends in 369d | Yes | 375 | 28¢ → 33¢ | $122 | +$18 +17% |
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026?Ends in 79d | No | 130 | 83¢ → 93¢ | $121 | +$13 +12% |
| US imports Russian diesel by November 30?Ends in 41d | No | 157 | 68¢ → 76¢ | $119 | +$13 +12% |
| Will Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?Ends in 72d | Yes | 118 | 92¢ → >99¢ | $118 | +$9 +8.1% |
| Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Ends in 14d | No | 270 | 44¢ → 42¢ | $112 | −$8 −6.7% |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2026?Ends in 41d | No | 224 | 46¢ → 50¢ | $112 | +$9 +8.7% |
| Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Ends in 749d | Yes | 770 | 14¢ → 14¢ | $111 | +$2 +1.4% |
| Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?Ends in 132d | No | 577 | 57¢ → 19¢ | $110 | −$218 −67% |
| Will Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia win the most seats in the 2026 Serbian parliamentary election?Ends in 4d | Yes | 155 | 53¢ → 69¢ | $106 | +$25 +30% |
| Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by June 30, 2027?Ends in 253d | No | 179 | 72¢ → 56¢ | $99 | −$30 −23% |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseEnds in 14d | Yes | 1,116 | 14¢ → 9¢ | $95 | −$63 −40% |
| Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?Ends in 15d | No | 1,299 | 23¢ → 7¢ | $91 | −$208 −70% |
| Will CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by December 31, 2026?Ends in 72d | No | 93 | 73¢ → 97¢ | $90 | +$22 +33% |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann win the 2027 French presidential election?Ends in 180d | Yes | 1,707 | 1¢ → 5¢ | $85 | +$71 +534% |
| Alexandre de Moraes out as Brazil Supreme Court Justice?Ends in 72d | Yes | 707 | 19¢ → 12¢ | $81 | −$55 −40% |
| Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?Ends in 72d | Yes | 620 | 61¢ → 13¢ | $81 | −$300 −79% |
| Will Morgan Wallen be the Billboard #1 top artist in 2026?Ends in 162d | No | 384 | 22¢ → 21¢ | $80 | −$4 −4.6% |
| Will Аndrey Gyurov win the next Bulgarian presidential election?Ends in 5d | Yes | 681 | 27¢ → 12¢ | $78 | −$102 −57% |
| Will Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?Ends in 71d | Yes | 360 | 23¢ → 22¢ | $77 | −$7 −8.3% |
| Will the total domestic gross for Resident Evil be less than 150m by October 31?Ends in 10d | No | 77 | 57¢ → >99¢ | $77 | +$33 +75% |
| Will the UK’s 2026 inflation be between 3.5% and 3.9%?Ends in 92d | Yes | 141 | 28¢ → 53¢ | $75 | +$35 +87% |
| Will Microsoft launch a Muse-like personal agent before 2027?Ends in 72d | No | 104 | 76¢ → 69¢ | $71 | −$8 −9.9% |
| Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Ends in 7d | Yes | 447 | 4¢ → 16¢ | $69 | +$53 +334% |
| Will Miloš Vučević win the next Serbia presidential election?Ends in 193d | No | 77 | 67¢ → 82¢ | $63 | +$11 +21% |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Ends in 437d | No | 163 | 8¢ → 38¢ | $62 | +$49 +375% |
| Bank of Canada Rate Hike in 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 71 | 28¢ → 84¢ | $60 | +$39 +195% |
| Will OpenAI release a social network in 2026?Ends in 72d | Yes | 620 | 11¢ → 10¢ | $59 | −$6 −9.9% |
| Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the best domestic opening week in 2026?Ends in 103d | No | 88 | 62¢ → 64¢ | $56 | +$2 +3.2% |
| Will USD be at least 2.8M Iranian rials on October 31?Ends in 11d | No | 67 | 25¢ → 83¢ | $56 | +$39 +230% |
| Will Russia capture all of Vovchansk by December 31?Ends in 72d | Yes | 201 | 21¢ → 27¢ | $54 | +$13 +32% |
