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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| September 30 | 100% | +3 pts | +6 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| December 31 | 100% | +2 pts | +4 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 410d |  DFK3 fills | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $9,847 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 410d | DFK2 fills | December 31 | BuyYes>99¢ | $15,015 | +$70 +0.5% | 20 |
| 410d | haraya2 fills | September 30 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,193 | −$79 −1.9% | — |
| 410d | OLOTH | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $5,994 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 410d |  Babar1952 | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,488 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 410d | Abdoulay | September 30 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,252 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 411d | nedsta | September 30 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,254 | +$8 +0.6% | 20 |
| 411d |  nicoco89 | December 31 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $4,949 | +$51 +1.0% | 20 |
| 411d |  AgricultureSecretary | September 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $7,414 | +$144 +1.9% | 20 |
| 411d |  Starsee | September 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,270 | +$63 +1.9% | 20 |
| 411d |  0xf1434f7d6de30bfbbdfeadd075a1f40f3 fills | September 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $29,430 | +$570 +1.9% | 20 |
| 411d |  Waterfall | September 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $5,791 | +$112 +1.9% | 20 |
| 411d | BobbyB3 fills | September 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $23,544 | +$456 +1.9% | 20 |
| 411d | pantomime | September 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $2,180 | +$42 +1.9% | 20 |
| 411d | Yafan7 fills | September 30 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $13,685 | +$467 +3.4% | 20 |
| 411d | PlayHouse | September 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,924 | +$76 +1.9% | 20 |
| 411d | haraya | December 31 | SellYes97¢ → 100¢ | $1,322 | −$36 −2.7% | — |
| 411d | MariaLo | December 31 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,672 | +$35 +2.1% | 20 |
| 411d |  Vanquish2 fills | September 30 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $4,593 | +$82 +1.8% | 20 |
| 420d |  0x12345 | September 30 | SellYes91¢ → 100¢ | $2,723 | −$256 −9.4% | — |
| 421d | aff3 | September 30 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $1,557 | −$169 −11% | — |
| 422d | 0x123452 fills | September 30 | BuyYes88¢ → 100¢ | $4,190 | +$594 +14% | 20 |
| 422d | aff3 | September 30 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,630 | +$95 +5.9% | 20 |
| 422d | nhpx38txna0500 | September 30 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,309 | +$84 +6.4% | 20 |
| 422d | nedsta | December 31 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $1,302 | +$129 +9.9% | 20 |
| 422d | NSYGG | September 30 | BuyYes91¢ → 100¢ | $7,910 | +$748 +9.5% | 20 |
| 423d | Thiou | September 30 | BuyYes85¢ → 100¢ | $2,500 | +$435 +17% | 20 |
| 497d | lowrisk24 | December 31 | BuyNo80¢ → 0¢ | $1,120 | −$1,120 −100% | 20 |
This market will resolve to "Yes" if François Bayrou is no longer serving as Prime Minister of France for any length of time between January 13 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of François Bayrou's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. This market's resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for September 30 means the market gives it about 100%.