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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No change | 100% | 0 pts | 0 pts | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| 50+ bps decrease | 0% | — | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 25 bps decrease | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| Increase | 0% | 0 pts | 0 pts | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 260d | pisch88 | No change | SellYes>99¢ | $1,975 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 260d |  noreasapa | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,213 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 260d |  AcctToBeRetired2 fills | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $44,410 | +$89 +0.2% | 20 |
| 260d |  Chims | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 260d | wokerjoesleeper10 fills | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $18,586 | +$23 +0.1% | 20 |
| 260d | influenz.eth21 fills | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $33,952 | +$117 +0.3% | 20 |
| 260d | influenz.eth18 fills | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $28,245 | +$50 +0.2% | 20 |
| 260d | wokerjoesleeper13 fills | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $25,187 | +$95 +0.4% | 20 |
| 260d | oklr3 fills | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $9,972 | +$77 +0.8% | 20 |
| 260d | Winninghumbly | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $34,930 | +$70 +0.2% | 20 |
| 260d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,900 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 260d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,000 | +$13 +0.1% | 20 |
| 260d |  bamesjond2 fills | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $23,511 | +$24 +0.1% | 20 |
| 261d | bamesjond | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,745 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 261d | nonkenny90 | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,996 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 261d | ADancrypto2 fills | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $10,296 | +$21 +0.2% | 20 |
| 261d | nicdan | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,689 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 261d | PMzhuanyong | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,708 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 261d | Ocrimocrim | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,200 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 261d | deepmouse | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,487 | +$5 +0.1% | 20 |
| 261d | AJK2 | 25 bps decrease | SellNo>99¢ | $1,998 | −$6 −0.3% | — |
| 261d |  llzl9d9ujfurhuer3 | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $85,098 | +$85 +0.1% | 20 |
| 261d | OLOTH2 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,999 | +$10 +0.1% | 20 |
| 262d | kotikov | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,024 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 262d |  prodik | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,075 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 262d | oklr2 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $79,920 | +$80 +0.1% | 20 |
| 262d | influenz.eth17 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $26,047 | +$60 +0.2% | 20 |
| 262d | QMG-SCALAR2 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $12,927 | +$73 +0.6% | 20 |
| 262d |  TheRealestJOE | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,401 | +$7 +0.3% | 20 |
| 262d | satoshiua | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,997 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | madman666 | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,096 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 263d |  DonSpyro | No change | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,192 | +$4 +0.3% | 20 |
| 263d | wokerjoesleeper9 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $17,065 | +$25 +0.1% | 20 |
| 263d | xukehu | Increase | SellNo>99¢ | $27,889 | −$28 −0.1% | — |
| 263d | MPCap20 | 50+ bps decrease | SellNo>99¢ | $1,297 | −$3 −0.2% | — |
| 263d | AJK2 | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 264d | eminem | No change | BuyYes100¢ | $2,526 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
| 264d | QMG-CORE5 fills | No change | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $8,055 | +$153 +1.9% | 20 |
| 264d | snowmann2 fills | 25 bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,010 | +$12 +0.3% | 20 |
| 264d | predator | No change | BuyYes100¢ | $1,780 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 264d | Abdoulay2 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,015 | +$9 +0.1% | 20 |
| 264d | pigswallet | No change | BuyYes100¢ | $14,015 | +$70 +0.5% | 20 |
| 264d | Dhillon88362 fills | Increase | SellNo>99¢ | $2,266 | −$5 −0.2% | — |
| 264d | Dhillon88362 fills | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,269 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 264d | snowmann | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,243 | +$7 +0.2% | 20 |
| 265d |  kulirner | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,075 | +$10 +0.9% | 20 |
| 265d |  taut-dogwood | Increase | SellNo>99¢ | $1,098 | −$2 −0.2% | — |
| 265d |  Ahpo | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo100¢ | $1,686 | +$8 +0.5% | 20 |
| 266d | QMG-CORE3 fills | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $10,956 | +$44 +0.4% | 20 |
| 266d | Randomfool2 fills | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $8,332 | +$69 +0.8% | 20 |
| 266d | taut-dogwood4 fills | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $10,803 | +$75 +0.7% | 20 |
| 267d | rated | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,050 | +$2 +0.2% | 20 |
| 267d | Occasionalbettor | No change | BuyYes100¢ | $9,950 | +$50 +0.5% | 20 |
| 268d | chriszyy3 | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,592 | +$29 +0.8% | 20 |
| 268d |  Coram_Deo4 fills | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $11,242 | +$102 +0.9% | 20 |
| 268d |  Gemini4563 fills | No change | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $19,642 | +$247 +1.3% | 20 |
| 268d | products | Increase | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,050 | +$6 +0.6% | 20 |
| 268d |  flow-trader-at-optiver3 fills | Increase | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,788 | +$24 +0.5% | 20 |
| 268d | flow-trader-at-optiver3 fills | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,791 | +$20 +0.4% | 20 |
| 269d | mwokcqnyjeyr9 | 50+ bps decrease | BuyNo100¢ | $2,534 | +$13 +0.5% | 20 |
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) February 2026 meeting. If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution. The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its February 5, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the February 5, 2026, meeting. If no interest rate decision or update is published by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for No change means the market gives it about 100%.