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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 65-89 | 100% | +91 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 40-64 | 0% | −57 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 191d |  Kamenshyk22 | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,997 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 191d |  upont | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $32,655 | −$33 −0.1% | — |
| 191d | Cryptan228 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $2,380 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 191d | gfdgdfgffs10 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,232 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 191d |  kejsi | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,540 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 191d |  PredictionYogi | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,537 | +$19 +0.2% | 20 |
| 191d |  Annica4 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $34,517 | +$301 +0.9% | 20 |
| 191d | Annica2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $33,737 | +$34 +0.1% | 20 |
| 191d |  Meow12 | 40-64 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,956 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 191d | BinaryBaron2 fills | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $13,992 | +$15 +0.1% | 20 |
| 191d | yolol | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $19,998 | +$20 +0.1% | 20 |
| 191d | upont5 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $24,223 | +$81 +0.3% | 20 |
| 191d | Annica3 fills | 65-89 | SellYes90¢ → 100¢ | $13,777 | −$1,481 −11% | — |
| 191d |  hypster1o | 65-89 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,645 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 191d | GRILLEDCHEESESANDWICH87 | 40-64 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,202 | −$12 −1.0% | — |
| 191d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 65-89 | BuyYes>99¢ | $8,125 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 191d | 6862584 | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $3,163 | +$35 +1.1% | 20 |
| 191d |  lasiweijiasi | 65-89 | BuyYes99¢ → 100¢ | $1,998 | +$22 +1.1% | 20 |
| 191d | Ondra | 40-64 | SellNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,084 | −$11 −1.0% | — |
| 191d | PredictionYogi | 40-64 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,789 | +$58 +1.0% | 20 |
| 191d |  KARMASUR | 40-64 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $2,293 | +$70 +3.0% | 21 |
| 191d | Unequaled-Hatbox | 40-64 | BuyNo96¢ → 100¢ | $2,226 | +$93 +4.2% | 22 |
| 191d |  AlmostRich | 65-89 | BuyYes83¢ → 100¢ | $4,127 | +$874 +21% | 26 |
| 191d | kejsi | 40-64 | BuyNo87¢ → 100¢ | $3,950 | +$566 +14% | 24 |
| 191d | Meow12 | 40-64 | BuyNo94¢ → 100¢ | $4,674 | +$274 +5.9% | 22 |
| 191d | 0x9429…c151 | 65-89 | SellNo37¢ → 0¢ | $1,119 | +$1,119 +100% | — |
| 191d | xaeroqkAtProtonMe2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo66¢ → 0¢ | $2,575 | −$2,575 −100% | 25 |
| 191d | deyi962451 | 40-64 | BuyYes95¢ → 0¢ | $1,008 | −$1,008 −100% | 22 |
| 191d | Dense-Muscat | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $3,294 | −$3 −0.1% | — |
| 191d | Actual-Ladle | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 0¢ | $1,649 | −$1,649 −100% | 22 |
| 191d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,661 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 191d | morkolen | 65-89 | BuyNo93¢ → 0¢ | $1,409 | −$1,409 −100% | 22 |
| 191d | yip88 | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,337 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 191d | onekey09 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $73,658 | +$74 +0.1% | 20 |
| 191d | BinaryBaron | 40-64 | BuyYes85¢ → 0¢ | $1,399 | −$1,399 −100% | 25 |
| 191d | tianjiyuyunzhilu2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,563 | +$19 +0.3% | 20 |
| 191d | sydneybttk6217064 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,499 | +$11 +0.2% | 20 |
| 191d |  Boss7 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $15,625 | +$31 +0.2% | 20 |
| 191d | englebertking70 | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $8,163 | +$16 +0.2% | 20 |
| 192d | BinaryBaron3 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,972 | +$51 +0.9% | 20 |
| 192d | Actual-Ladle | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,655 | +$7 +0.4% | 20 |
| 192d | rusgreat2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,970 | +$35 +0.7% | 20 |
| 192d | lsijlsirjliryi | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,998 | +$20 +1.0% | 20 |
| 192d | Coinupup | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,335 | +$56 +1.1% | 20 |
| 192d | upont | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $16,530 | −$17 −0.1% | — |
| 192d | 6862584 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $5,994 | +$65 +1.1% | 20 |
| 192d | 0x9429…c151 | 65-89 | BuyNo69¢ → 0¢ | $1,578 | −$1,578 −100% | 30 |
| 192d | 0x9ffe…41d0 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,772 | +$20 +1.2% | 20 |
| 192d | tianjiyuyunzhilu | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $4,294 | +$4 +0.1% | 20 |
| 192d | Medical-Universe | 65-89 | BuyNo65¢ → 0¢ | $1,141 | −$1,141 −100% | 33 |
| 192d | lsijlsirjliryi | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,441 | +$3 +0.2% | 20 |
| 192d |  hkhjfgy2 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $5,634 | +$6 +0.1% | 20 |
| 192d | Medical-Universe | 65-89 | SellYes40¢ → 100¢ | $1,326 | −$1,952 −147% | — |
| 192d | omegonx | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,570 | +$5 +0.2% | 20 |
| 192d | Slushy-TussleNew account | 40-64 | BuyYes48¢ → 0¢ | $1,323 | −$1,323 −100% | 37 |
| 192d | CJLabs | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $1,220 | +$31 +2.6% | 21 |
| 192d | Irondo | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,993 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 192d | marbas | 40-64 | BuyNo76¢ → 100¢ | $2,908 | +$911 +31% | 26 |
| 192d | WCWS | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $9,956 | +$40 +0.4% | 20 |
| 192d | Coinupup | <40 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,543 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
nimikm2,000 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 13 12:00 PM ET to April 15, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 65-89 means the market gives it about 100%.