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| Outcome | Chance | 24h | 1 week | Bid · Ask | 24h volume | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40-64 | 100% | −4 pts | — | >99¢ · 100¢ (<1¢) | — | ended |
| <40 | 0% | −1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 65-89 | 0% | −7 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 90-114 | 0% | +1 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 115-139 | 0% | +10 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 140-164 | 0% | +2 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 165-189 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 190-214 | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 215-239 | 0% | 0 pts | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| 240+ | 0% | — | — | — · <1¢ | — | ended |
| When | Trader | Outcome | Bet | Size | P&L now | Insider |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 237d |  MankPredict | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,499 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 237d |  bigguy4u | 65-89 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,642 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 237d |  guy5050 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,000 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 237d |  PredictionMarketsRnot4me | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,691 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 237d |  Mei-ji | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,105 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 237d |  lebi4ik | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,497 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 237d | troim | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,424 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 237d | Mognar2 fills | 65-89 | SellNo90¢ → 100¢ | $3,231 | −$368 −11% | — |
| 237d |  crvAlex | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $3,587 | −$4 −0.1% | — |
| 237d |  badmoshbillu | 90-114 | SellNo>99¢ | $7,781 | −$8 −0.1% | — |
| 237d |  TweetPulse.Live | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $2,405 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 237d |  Carrrr | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,947 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 237d | Fair-Tan3 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $23,324 | +$35 +0.1% | 20 |
| 237d |  c4acap | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $3,032 | +$6 +0.2% | 20 |
| 237d | Wild-Manner | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $2,857 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 237d |  Prexpect2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $44,661 | +$49 +0.1% | 20 |
| 237d | BinaryBaron7 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $22,073 | +$772 +3.5% | 21 |
| 237d |  VCVIC | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,235 | −$5 −0.4% | — |
| 237d | duannanyu | 65-89 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,153 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 237d | Ashurnasirpal | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,880 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 237d | iipera | 40-64 | BuyYes>99¢ | $1,756 | +$4 +0.2% | 20 |
| 237d | Dd8Aa6940ef0b95B2ae32981dFA0ff7caF8dedf9 | 40-64 | SellYes>99¢ | $1,467 | −$5 −0.3% | — |
| 237d | NoMoney25553 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $6,965 | +$116 +1.7% | 21 |
| 237d | MelH | 40-64 | BuyYes100¢ | $1,791 | +$9 +0.5% | 20 |
| 237d | influenz.eth2 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $4,170 | +$42 +1.0% | 20 |
| 237d | BinaryBaron3 fills | 65-89 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $14,332 | +$290 +2.0% | 21 |
| 237d | csubhi1 | 115-139 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,550 | −$2 −0.1% | — |
| 237d | dudukos2 fills | 40-64 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $3,279 | −$75 −2.3% | — |
| 237d | Bold-FlowNew account | 40-64 | SellYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,634 | −$32 −1.9% | — |
| 237d |  PredictionYogi2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes97¢ → 100¢ | $4,192 | +$108 +2.6% | 21 |
| 237d |  Therealsmurf | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,105 | +$24 +2.1% | 21 |
| 237d | Carrrr | 40-64 | BuyYes98¢ → 100¢ | $1,066 | +$24 +2.2% | 21 |
| 237d | badmoshbillu | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,781 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 237d | bigguy4u | 65-89 | BuyNo97¢ → 100¢ | $4,486 | +$161 +3.6% | 21 |
| 237d | HuatzTTM4 fills | 115-139 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $8,251 | +$45 +0.5% | 20 |
| 237d | influenz.eth2 fills | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,239 | +$15 +0.7% | 20 |
| 237d | crvAlex | 40-64 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $3,387 | +$203 +6.0% | 22 |
| 237d | VCVIC | 40-64 | BuyYes94¢ → 100¢ | $1,163 | +$77 +6.6% | 22 |
| 237d | Emintendo | 40-64 | SellYes88¢ → 100¢ | $1,198 | −$164 −14% | — |
| 238d | Emintendo | 40-64 | BuyYes89¢ → 100¢ | $1,211 | +$151 +12% | 24 |
| 238d |  onchainbuda | 90-114 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,295 | +$5 +0.4% | 20 |
| 238d | lebi4ik | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,492 | +$20 +0.8% | 20 |
| 238d | 07nbw4 | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,913 | +$17 +0.9% | 20 |
| 238d | Bold-FlowNew account | 40-64 | BuyYes77¢ → 100¢ | $1,278 | +$388 +30% | 37 |
| 238d |  FFIE.2 fills | 40-64 | BuyYes73¢ → 100¢ | $2,490 | +$940 +38% | 27 |
| 238d |  eI0zwvzk | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,040 | +$12 +0.4% | 20 |
| 238d | influenz.eth | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,061 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | BT-polymarket | 40-64 | BuyYes76¢ → 100¢ | $1,937 | +$612 +32% | 28 |
| 238d |  Trevor-Philips | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $1,117 | +$1 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | bnone | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $2,000 | +$2 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | pauer31 | 40-64 | BuyYes75¢ → 100¢ | $1,492 | +$497 +33% | 27 |
| 238d | HuatzTTM | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $2,970 | +$30 +1.0% | 20 |
| 238d |  Boss7 | 140-164 | SellNo>99¢ | $1,334 | −$1 −0.1% | — |
| 238d |  C78123 | 115-139 | BuyNo>99¢ | $3,000 | +$3 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | Boss7 | 140-164 | BuyNo>99¢ | $7,863 | +$8 +0.1% | 20 |
| 238d | 020419923 fills | 40-64 | SellYes70¢ → 100¢ | $3,877 | −$1,628 −42% | — |
| 238d | Boss72 fills | 215-239 | SellNo>99¢ | $4,862 | −$5 −0.1% | — |
| 238d |  DJB. | 90-114 | BuyNo99¢ → 100¢ | $1,144 | +$13 +1.1% | 20 |
| 238d |  LeJoe | 90-114 | BuyNo98¢ → 100¢ | $4,182 | +$84 +2.0% | 21 |
| 238d | dudukos | 65-89 | BuyYes44¢ → 0¢ | $1,500 | −$1,500 −100% | 28 |
Richgoddess21,056 sharesThis market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from February 26 12:00 PM ET to February 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Sources: Polymarket's Gamma API, its CLOB price history and its Data API, read every two minutes. Prices are each outcome's Yes price, which is the market's probability: 100¢ for 40-64 means the market gives it about 100%.